(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

March 26 -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

Despite all the grandstanding on both sides of the Middle East

conflict, there's little change in the situation for energy or

financial markets to take solace from. The U.S. claims it's

negotiating a 15-point ceasefire plan, while Iran insists no

talks are planned and that it's merely reviewing the U.S.

proposal.

All the while, fighting continues and the Strait of Hormuz

remains effectively shut, with oil prices pushing back up and

energy analysts upgrading their full-year crude price estimates

further.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on the worrying signs in

U.S. Treasury markets and why they matter for broader markets.

And catch today's episode of the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe

to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets

and finance seven days a week.

REALITY CHECK

After falling around 2% on Wednesday, both Brent and WTI crude

futures ticked back up on Thursday as traders digested the

latest mixed signals from the U.S. and Iran. The benchmarks are

now hovering around $105 and $93 per barrel, respectively.

Global shares were unsteady as hopes for an imminent ceasefire

faded. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei lost 0.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng

index fell by 1.7% and South Korea's KOSPI index was down 2.7%.

Europe's STOXX 600 fell on Thursday morning, while U.S. stock

futures were also down before the bell.

Gold fell back too, once again failing to register any safety

bid and instead shedding some of the recent gains it owed to

prospects for a resolution to the energy shock.

Treasury markets were on edge after another series of poor debt

auctions and mounting longer-term inflation risks, with

Wednesday's import price data already showing a much bigger jump

in February than forecast before the war.

Elsewhere, it was announced that President Trump has

re-scheduled his hotly anticipated trip to China for mid-May.

Meantime, Alphabet and Meta lost a U.S. court case over whether

the design of their social media platforms harm children.

In technology news, Arm Holdings stock jumped over 16% on

Wednesday after predicting that its new in-house data-center

chip would generate roughly $15 billion in annual revenue in

five years. The chip, which is geared toward powering "agentic"

AI, marks a departure for Arm, which has previously licensed

chip designs to giants such as Nvidia.

Chart of the day

Even before this month's oil shock, U.S. import price inflation

had already turned sharply higher, hitting 1.3% in February,

well above forecasts. The monthly jump, which exclude tariffs,

was the biggest in four years.

It was driven by food and energy prices but also consumer

and capital goods. Largely due to the AI infrastructure boom,

prices of imported capital goods logged their biggest increase

on record. And the core annual rate of import price inflation

rose to 3.0%, partly reflecting dollar weakness over the past

year.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM EDT)

* U.S. 7-year note auction (1:00 PM EDT)

* Fed's Stephen Miran, Lisa Cook, Michael Barr and Philip

Jefferson all speak

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.