July 1 (Reuters) - The opinions expressed here are those
of Dhara Ranasinghe, Editor, Financial Markets, EMEA.
All eyes remain focused on Washington, with Senate
Republicans still locked in a marathon session, known as
"vote-a-rama", as they try to pass a contentious tax cut and
spending bill that could add trillions of dollars to the
country's already high debt load.
This hasn't helped the dollar, which is languishing at its
lowest levels against the euro in almost four years, as the
fiscal bill keeps debt worries front and center for global
investors.
Mike Dolan is enjoying some well-deserved time off over the
next two weeks, but the Reuters markets team is here to provide
you with all the information you need to start your day.
Today's Market Minute
* U.S. Senate Republicans were still trying to pass
President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending
bill early on Tuesday morning, despite divisions within the
party about its expected $3.3 trillion hit to the nation's debt
pile.
* President Trump suggested on Tuesday that the government
efficiency department should take a look at the subsidies that
Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab CEO Elon Musk's companies have
received in order to save money.
* President Trump expressed frustration with U.S.-Japan trade
negotiations on Monday as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher
tariffs as a July 9 deadline approaches despite good-faith
negotiations.
* There has been much discussion of the so-called "Trump put"
for equities, but perhaps more attention should be paid to the
administration's effective "Treasury Put", claims Stephen Jen,
CEO and co-CIO of Eurizon SLJ asset management.
* U.S. power sector emissions are already at their highest
levels in three years, writes ROI columnist Gavin Maguire, but
they are likely to climb even higher in the coming months.
Vote-a-rama is still going on
Senators are voting in a marathon session featuring a series
of amendments by Republicans and the minority Democrats, part of
the arcane process Republicans are using to bypass Senate rules
that normally require 60 of the chamber's 100 members to agree
on legislation.
It is unclear how long the voting, which started on Monday,
will last.
What's interesting is how financial markets are reacting to
developments on the Hill.
As mentioned above, the latest signs of U.S. policy
uncertainty and concern about ever-rising deficits are weighing
on the dollar.
Now look at bond markets, which have been notably quiet in
the face of fiscal worries.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released its
assessment on Sunday of the bill's hit to the $36.2 trillion
U.S. debt pile. The Senate version is estimated to cost $3.3
trillion, $800 billion more than the version passed last month
in the House of Representatives.
So, where have the so-called bond vigilantes gone?
One explanation is that attention, for now, has returned to
inflation and growing expectations that Federal Reserve interest
rate cuts will come sooner rather than later.
And on that point, U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday
continued to pressure Fed chief Jerome Powell to cut rates.
Goldman Sachs reckons the Fed will deliver three rate cuts this
year.
With markets pricing in roughly two quarter-point rate cuts
by year-end, bond investors, it appears, are happy with U.S.
10-year yields at around 4.2% - the lowest in around
two months.
The other point for bond markets, with regards to the bill,
is that even if it is passed by Trump's July 4 deadline, a debt
ceiling increase in the bill does not become an issue until
later in the summer.
Generally upbeat sentiment in stock markets meanwhile - note the
S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closing highs on Monday - could be
put to the test by signs that efforts to secure trade deals may
be stalling.
Trump expressed frustration with U.S.-Japan trade negotiations
on Monday, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that
countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs as a July
9 deadline approaches despite good-faith negotiations.
Chart of the Day
The U.S. dollar index, which measures its value against a
basket of other major currencies, is down almost 11% so far this
year.
In fact, the dollar has suffered its biggest first-half dive
since the early 1970s.
While the currency is expected to remain the world's No.1.
reserve currency for some time to come given the size of the
U.S. economy and the unrivalled depth of its capital markets,
sentiment towards the dollar has taken a hit this year against a
backdrop of concern about erratic U.S. policy making, trade
tensions and worries about Fed independence.
Today's events to watch
* ISM June data
* JOLTS May job openings
* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at ECB forum
* Constellation Brands earnings results