(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

Sept 29 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

Buoyant world stock markets seem oblivious to the possibility

that the U.S. government may be forced to shut down operations

this week just as the third quarter comes to a close on Tuesday.

But gold also raced to a new high above $3,800 an ounce as the

dollar fell back once more.

Republicans urge Democrats to agree to short-term bill to

keep US government open

Senate Democrats demanded that any legislation undo cuts to

healthcare programs.

With President Donald Trump due to meet top Democratic and

Republican leaders in Congress on Monday to discuss extending

government funding beyond month end, the most immediate impact

of a shutdown could be to postpone the release of the critical

September employment report that's due on Friday.

In the absence of a payrolls report, markets will have to feed

off the rest of the week's labor market data - starting with

August job openings tomorrow - and absorb the implications of

last week's consumer spending rise that catapulted U.S. GDP

growth trackers to as high as 3.9%. That rate of growth and the

loosest financial conditions in four years question the need for

further rate cuts and a stream of Federal Reserve speakers are

scheduled for Monday. U.S. stock futures are up again ahead of

today's bell, with Japan underperforming overseas as the yen

rose on speculation about an interest rate hike there.

* Shutdown Jitters and Fed Outlook

Investors are bracing for a potential U.S. government shutdown

starting Wednesday if Congress fails to pass a funding bill. A

prolonged closure could delay key economic data, including

Friday's payrolls report, complicating the Fed's policy outlook

ahead of its October meeting. Markets currently price in about

40 basis points of easing by year-end, with a 90% probability of

an October cut.

* Quarter-End Positioning and Equity Moves

U.S. stocks closed higher Friday after August PCE inflation

matched expectations, though all three major indexes ended the

week lower. The Dow gained 0.7%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, and the

Nasdaq added 0.4%, as investors balanced resilient economic data

with hopes for further Fed easing. Analysts expect Q4 to be

seasonally strong, with the S&P 500 historically gaining in 74%

of fourth quarters.

* Tariff Sweep Lifts Select Stocks

President Trump announced new tariffs on heavy-duty trucks,

branded pharmaceuticals, and home furnishings, sparking sharp

moves in related shares. Truck maker Paccar jumped 5.2% on

expectations of domestic demand, while Eli Lilly gained 1.4%.

The measures, which take effect Wednesday, add another layer of

uncertainty for trade-sensitive sectors as markets head into Q4.

Trump is also considering imposing tariffs on foreign electronic

devices based on the number of chips in each one, Reuters

sources said.

Today's Market Minute

* Donald Trump will host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu at the White House on Monday, with the U.S. president

pushing a Gaza peace proposal after a slew of Western leaders

embraced Palestinian statehood in defiance of American and

Israeli opposition.

* Moldova's pro-European ruling party won a resounding victory

over its Russian-leaning rival in a key parliamentary election,

results showed on Monday, a major boost for the country's bid to

join the EU and break away from Moscow's orbit.

* China's new visa programme aimed at attracting foreign tech

talent kicks off this week, a move seen boosting Beijing's

fortunes in its geopolitical rivalry with Washington as a new

U.S. visa policy prompts would-be applicants to scramble for

alternatives.

* Tech giants are ploughing money into artificial intelligence.

But, writes Panmure Liberum investment strategist Joachim

Klement in his latest piece for ROI, rising long-term Treasury

yields could jeopardise the investment boom in data centres and

other infrastructure.

* Ukraine's repeated strikes on Russian energy infrastructure

have dealt a serious blow to Moscow's vital fuel exports just as

Western sanctions are tightening. But if these attacks are too

successful, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso, they risk

raising Trump's ire.

Chart of the day

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds

of economic activity, rose 0.6% last month - slightly faster

than forecast but enough to push the Atlanta Fed's third-quarter

GDP growth estimate to a 3.9% rate from a 3.3% pace earlier.

Today's events to watch (all times EDT)

* U.S. August pending home sales (10:00 AM EDT); Dallas Fed

manufacturing survey (10:30 AM EDT)

* Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller, New

York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Beth

Hammack, Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic and St. Louis Fed chief

Alberto Musalem all speak; European Central Bank chief economist

Philip Lane speaks; Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden

speaks

* U.S. corporate earnings: Carnival

* UK finance minister Rachel Reeves speaks at ruling Labour

Party annual conference

* Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney visits London

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

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committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.