(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and

global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

A looming U.S. government shutdown is casting a shadow over the

final day of a stellar third quarter for most world markets.

However, there appears to be little trepidation apart from

fretting over a data vacuum that could be left by the likely

postponement of the monthly jobs report.

U.S. President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponents

appeared to make little progress at a White House meeting aimed

at heading off a government shutdown that could disrupt a wide

range of services as soon as Wednesday - with Trump also

sidetracked by the announcement of a peace plan for Gaza. "I

think we're headed to a shutdown," Vice President JD Vance said.

Budget standoffs have become relatively routine in

Washington over the past 15 years and are often resolved at the

last minute. But Trump's willingness to override or ignore

spending laws passed by Congress has injected more uncertainty.

After another record high on Monday, Wall Street stock futures

pulled back a little ahead of Tuesday's bell and Treasury yields

drifted lower as a funding hiatus undercuts government spending

at the margin and Fed easing hopes rest on other labor market

data this week. The dollar edged down, but gold fell back too.

Quarter-end book squaring may have as much to do with the day's

moves, with Japan's yen a big gainer ahead of October's possible

interest rate rise and the Aussie dollar up as the Reserve Bank

of Australia left rates unchanged.

* China's markets headed into the start of Golden Week

holidays

there tomorrow in an upbeat mood, despite another downbeat

official business survey for September. Factory activity there

shrank for a sixth month in September, suggesting producers are

waiting for further stimulus to boost domestic demand and

investors are now awaiting China's Communist Party meeting

October 20-23 for details on the next five-year economic plan.

* Markets are also digesting fallout from President Trump's

framework peace plan for Gaza - with gold and oil prices down

slightly on the proposals that have yet to get agreement on all

sides. While the direct market impact remains limited for now,

any escalation could affect energy prices and risk sentiment,

especially as oil trades lower on OPEC+ supply expectations.

* European markets also took a step back on the quarter end,

with

German states' inflation numbers coming in a little hotter than

last month and jobless totals there falling back. The euro was

firmer, while Spanish debt spreads to Germany's tightened after

last week's credit rating upgrades there - basking in the glow

of the fastest economic growth of the big euro zone economies

and a falling debt/GDP ratio.

In today's column, I discuss how the U.S. economy is estimated

to be growing at nearly 4% even though job creation appears to

be waning - and whether AI is the missing link.

Today's Market Minute

* Trump and his Democratic opponents appeared to make little

progress at a White House meeting aimed at heading off a

government shutdown that could disrupt a wide range of services

as soon as Wednesday.

* Trump said on Monday he would impose a 100% tariff on all

films produced overseas that are then sent into the U.S.,

repeating a threat made in May that would upend Hollywood's

global business model.

* China's manufacturing activity shrank for a sixth month in

September, an official survey showed on Tuesday, suggesting

producers are waiting for further stimulus to boost domestic

demand, as well as clarity on a U.S. trade deal.

* While energy companies are retrenching in the face of a bleak

near-term outlook for oil and gas, their investment plans

suggest they believe the environment will shift dramatically by

the end of the decade, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso.

* How often should companies report their financial performance?

This debate is back in the headlines, but Income Securities

Advisor publisher Marty Fridson argues that the current

discussion fails to highlight one key problem that reducing the

frequency of reporting could magnify.

Chart of the day

The combination of Federal worker cuts and this week's

possible government shutdown make for a rough year for public

sector employees, but their share of the overall workforce has

been waning for decades.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. July house prices (9:00 AM EDT) Chicago September

business surveys (09:45 AM EDT) US Sept consumer confidence

(10:00 AM EDT) August job openings (10:00 AM EDT) Dallas Federal

Reserve September service sector survey (10:30 AM EDT)

* Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Dallas

President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed boss Austan Goolsbee and

Boston Fed chief Susan Collins all speak; European Central Bank

board members Piero Cipollone and Frank Elderson speak; Bank of

England Deputy Governors Clare Lombardelli and Sarah Breeden and

BoE policymaker Catherine Mann all speak

* U.S. corporate earnings: Nike, Paychex, Lamb Weston

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

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committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.