A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike
Dolan
Wall Street returns from its midweek break to find record high
stocks still chomping at the bit, with overseas monetary easing
in focus as the Swiss cut interest rates for the second time
this year and the Bank of England decision now awaited.
With artificial intelligence still the dominant driver
stateside, Nvidia's ( NVDA ) vault on Tuesday to become the
world's most valuable company offers the latest twist. It's
stock was another 1% higher again before Thursday's bell and
S&P500 futures were up 0.4%.
With the dollar buoyant across the piece, China continued to
offer a nervy counter point to ebullient world markets.
The offshore yuan skidded to its weakest level of the
year even as the People's Bank of China left its interest rate
setting unchanged and Chinese stocks once again bucked the world
trend.
Down again on Thursday, mainland Chinese stocks
have now underperformed the wider MSCI all-country index
by some 8% this year.
With the PBOC guiding the onshore yuan lower at its daily
fixing, concern is growing that currency weakness is preventing
it from easing monetary policy to address the ongoing housing
bust.
And it also comes in tandem with fresh weakness in Japan's
yen, which hit its lowest since the Bank of Japan
intervention in April despite warnings of repeat action.
Putting the French political upheaval aside for the time
being, European stocks were higher - helped by the
latest interest rate cut on the continent.
The Swiss National Bank cut its main policy rate on Thursday
for the second time this year, maintaining the central bank's
position as a frontrunner in the global policy easing cycle and
sending the Swiss franc lower and Swiss stocks higher.
The latest quarter point cut to 1.25% has been almost 70%
priced by money markets in advance and another quarter point
easing is expected by yearend.
Norway's central bank was not for budging, however, and held
the line - more worried about spikier inflation there.
Attention now switches to the Bank of England, which
announces its latest decision on Thursday too. Not least with
July 4's British election around the corner, the BoE is expected
to stand pat for now - with a one-in-three chance of a cut at
its next meeting on August 1 now seen in money markets.
Even though headline UK inflation hit the BoE's 2% target
for the first time in three years last month, 'core' rates
remain well above 3% and services inflation is even stickier.
The BoE monetary policy committee is expected to be split 7-2 in
favour of holding rates - as it was last time around.
Sterling was a touch lower against the pumped up
dollar ahead of the decision - but up against the euro
.
In Europe, French stocks were firmer and the French
government debt spread with Germany steady after the
European Union warned on excessive French and Italian budget
deficits as expected on Wednesday - upping the ante into the
snap French parliamentary elections over the next month.
Back on Wall St, Treasury yields were a touch
higher into the re-open on Thursday - with housing data in focus
but also a keen eye on weekly jobless numbers to see if last
week's outsize jump was sustained.
The only number released during the "Juneteenth" market
holiday on Wednesday was a weaker-than-forecast NAHB housing
sentiment indicator for June.
In company news and deals, Britain's Tate & Lyle ( TATYF )
fell 6.5% after the food ingredients maker said it will buy
U.S.-based CP Kelco for $1.8 billion from J.M. Huber
Corporation.
And UK bank NatWest ( NWG ) struck a deal to acquire most of
the banking business of retailer Sainsbury's ( JSNSF ), in a deal
that would increase the British lender's assets by 2.5 billion
pounds ($3.2 billion).
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S.
markets later on Thursday:
* Bank of England policy decision
* US May housing starts/permits, weekly jobless claims, June
Philadelphia Fed business survey, US Q1 current account; Euro
zone June consumer confidence
* San Francisco President Federal Reserve President Mary Daly
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Minneapolis Fed chief
Neel Kashkari all speak
* Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg, with European Central Bank
President Christine Lagarde and ECB board member Piero Cipollone
attending
* US corporate earnings: Accenture, Kroger, Jabil, Darden
Restaurants, Smith & Wesson, Aurora Cannabis, Algoma Steel,
Mynaric
(By Mike Dolan, editing by Editing by William Maclean