(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
By Mike Dolan
Nov 12 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
Markets have already effectively priced in the U.S. government's
reopening on Monday, with today's House vote to restore funding
through January seen as a formality. Attention has now turned
more to tech sector wobbles and the deluge of delayed economic
data now due.
Veterans Day stock market trading was relatively subdued,
even though the S&P500 eked out a modest gain and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average clocked a new record high.
Unusually, the tech sector underperformed and the Nasdaq ended
in the red - unnerved by CoreWeave's 16% slide on data center
flubs and as SoftBank's sale of its stake in Nvidia knocked back
the world's most valuable company by more than 2%.
SoftBank's shares slid as much as 10% in Tokyo on Wednesday
as Nvidia highlighted the scale of the funding demands it faces
to bankroll an "all-in" bet on ChatGPT-creator OpenAI.
And Japan was volatile for other reasons - with the yen sliding
to a nine-month low of 154.9 per dollar after new Prime Minister
Sanae Takaichi once again urged the Bank of Japan not to be
overzealous in raising interest rates.
The yen move was arrested somewhat by comments from Finance
Minister Satsuki Katayama, who warned about the negative effects
of "one-sided and rapid movements" in the currency. Currency
traders doubt intervention alarm bells will ring before the yen
hits 160 - but that level is fast approaching.
Asian and European shares were higher and Wall Street stock
futures in positive territory ahead of Wednesday's bell,
however.
The prospect of a reopening of the federal government came
against another set of mixed signals on the U.S. economy, with
weekly updates of ADP's preliminary payroll figures showing
private sector employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week
through October.
That cosseted persistent speculation the Fed will cut interest
rates again next month, with futures clinging to a two-thirds
chance of another move in December despite clear disquiet in
some parts of the central bank about further easing.
A slew of Fed officials are on Wednesday's speaking diary,
including resident board doves Christopher Waller and Stephen
Miran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also due to address a
joint Fed-Treasury conference later in the day.
After Tuesday's holiday, Treasury markets reopen with yields
under wraps ahead of today's 10-year note auction.
President Donald Trump is expected to host a private dinner at
the White House with several top business executives, including
the chief executives of Nasdaq and JPMorgan Chase.
Aside from its move against the yen, the dollar was flatter
against the euro and other currencies on Wednesday. The Swiss
franc continued to push higher on reports that U.S. tariffs on
Swiss imports will be slashed to 15% from 39%.
Britain's pound and government bond prices weakened in tandem,
meanwhile, on overnight reports that Prime Minister Keir Starmer
may face a leadership challenge from within his own Labour
Party. Health minister Wes Streeting denied he was plotting to
bring down Starmer after unnamed allies of the prime minister
claimed a leadership bid could come after this month's critical
government budget.
In today's column, I argue that Europe's equity outperformance
this year has been flattered by currency shifts, so the
long-term test of its companies and economy rests on how it
fosters its emerging tech ecosystem.
Today's Market Minute
* Members of the House of Representatives headed back to
Washington on Tuesday, after a 53-day break, braving the
congestion at the nation's tangled airports for a vote that
could bring the longest U.S. government shutdown in history to a
close.
* U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to sue the BBC
for at
least $1 billion over its airing of what he says was a
deceptively edited documentary, but the case could hinge on
whether anyone in Florida watched it online and felt misled.
* General Motors (GM.N) has directed several thousand of its
suppliers to scrub their supply chains of parts from China, four
people familiar with the matter said, reflecting automakers'
growing frustration over geopolitical disruptions to their
operations.
* The International Energy Agency's latest outlook signals
that
oil demand may continue rising into 2050, a sharp shift from its
previous reports and a stark reminder of how dominant black gold
remains in the global economy. Read the latest from ROI energy
columnist Ron Bousso.
* Momentum has been the stock market story of 2025, as
trades that
have worked just keep on working. It would be brave to bet
against momentum at this point, but there might be ways to ride
the wave while avoiding a wipeout, argues Helen Jewell,
BlackRock International CIO, Fundamental Equities.
Chart of the day
SoftBank's shares slid as much as 10% on Wednesday after a
$5.8 billion sale of its stake in Nvidia highlighted the growing
funding demands it faces to bankroll an "all-in" bet on ChatGPT
creator OpenAI and other investments. The conglomerate needs to
fund a $22.5 billion follow-on investment in OpenAI, is
acquiring chipmaker Ampere in a $6.5 billion deal and has agreed
to buy the robotics business of Swiss group ABB for $5 billion.
A total spending commitment of $41 billion compares with the
group's $28 billion cash position as of September.
Today's events to watch
* Canada September building permits (8:30 AM EDT)
* Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives to
vote Wednesday afternoon on restoring funding to government
agencies and ending a shutdown now in its 42nd day
* Federal Reserve Board Governors Christopher Waller,
Stephen Miran and Michael Barr all speak, New York Fed President
John Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, Boston
Fed chief Susan Collins and Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic all
speak; European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos and
ECB board member Isabel Schnabel speak; Bank of England chief
economist Huw Pill and BoE's Director for Financial Stability,
Strategy and Risk Lee Foulger speak
* Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks at 2025 U.S.
Treasury Market Conference (10:45 AM EDT)
* U.S. Treasury sells $42 billion of 10-year notes
* U.S. corporate earnings: Cisco, TransDigm
* U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chair Paul Atkins
speaks about SEC's "Project Crypto"
* Euro zone finance ministers meet in Brussels, with
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, ECB board
member Piero Cipollone and ECB chief supervisor Claudia Buch all
attending.
Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday
morning? Sign up for the newsletter
here
. You can find ROI on the
Reuters website
, and you can follow us on
and
X.
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect
the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is
committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.