(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

With TV screens dominated by all the hoopla surrounding Spain's

World Cup victory this weekend, some may have failed to notice

that the Iran conflict appears to have descended into a

full-blown war once again. The US has hit Iranian targets for

the ninth straight day as Tehran has retaliated against U.S.

bases and Gulf shipping, Iranian attacks have now killed at

least three U.S. soldiers.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a trickle,

and Brent crude rose back above $90 per barrel on Monday for the

first time since early June before paring these gains.

I'll get into all that and more below.

But first, listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily

podcast about the energy crisis you should be focusing on, the

big moves in chip stocks and the changes at both 10 and 11

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THE MOST VIOLENT CEASEFIRE

Given the uptick in violence in the Middle East, it's little

wonder that there was so little positive reaction to the

relatively benign June inflation reports last week. The futures

market thinks there's a two-thirds chance the Fed will pull the

trigger on higher interest rates by September.

Shaky stocks are adding another big cloud to the horizon. South

Korean markets were closed on Friday, but the chip selling

resumed today, with the KOSPI down another 3%. Stocks elsewhere

were calmer first thing, as Tokyo was on holiday.

While U.S. futures are up slightly before the bell, this

follows a rough few weeks for tech stocks. High-flying U.S. chip

stocks were down 10% last week and 20% from their nosebleed

record highs in June, suggesting the market may be sobering up

from the AI frenzy. It'll now turn its eyes to the big

hyperscaler earnings out this week and next. First up is

Alphabet, which reports on Wednesday, with the likes of Intel

and Tesla also out this week.

Meanwhile, China's latest AI development from its Moonshot

programme offers a glimpse at how the world's second-biggest

economy is keeping pace with the rapid tech transformation.

Finally, in the UK, Andy Burnham finally takes over as UK Prime

Minister on Monday. The market will be keenly interested in his

cabinet picks and choice of finance minister, with relatively

conservative Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood expected to get the

nod.

CHART OF THE DAY

Crude oil prices briefly surged back above $90 per barrel on

Monday for the first time since early June as the Iran war raged

after the ninth straight day of U.S. attacks on Iran and deadly

Iranian reprisals against regional U.S. bases. Prices fell back

below this mark after Iran's foreign ‌ministry said negotiations

with the U.S. could be pursued based on national interests.

Gulf shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has

slowed to a trickle. With fuel prices rising again across the

board, average retail U.S. gasoline prices - which are still up

more than 30% since the start of the war - are back above $4 per

gallon.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. June Leading Economic Index, Canada's June inflation

report

* Labour Party leader Andy Burnham formally takes office as

UK Prime Minister

* U.S. earnings reports from Domino's Pizza, Steel Dynamics

and WR Berkley

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

(Writing by Mike Dolan)