(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

April 14 -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

Markets are clinging to hopes that there will be an eventual

breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations, with oil prices

retreating and stocks rebounding even as the U.S. blockade of

Iranian ports takes effect.

The half-hearted stock selloff early on Monday, which later

unwound, indicated that the impact of each twist and turn in the

conflict appears to be dissipating, with investors sticking to

the view that we'll soon see significant de-escalation and a

freeing up of oil supplies.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on why Hungary's political

shift could have big implications for EU assets.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily

podcast, where I discuss the S&P 500's return - just about - to

its pre-war level.

Finally, don't forget to mark April 23 in your calendar, when

​I'll be joining my ROI colleague Jamie McGeever for a timely

webinar discussion on rethinking safe-haven assets in uncertain

times. Sign ⁠up here.

WAR-WEARY MARKETS FILTER OUT NOISE

Despite the imposition of the U.S. blockade and hard talk

between Washington and Tehran, reports over the past 24 hours

have suggested there is still some dialogue between them and

that talks could resume this week.

That's been enough to guide Brent and WTI crude back below $100

per barrel. Oil's retreat helped spark a rally on Wall Street on

Monday, with the S&P 500 ending up about 1%, leaving it higher

than it was at the outbreak of the war more than six weeks ago.

That momentum has so far carried on into Tuesday, with Asian

stock indexes closing in the green, European shares rising, and

Wall Street futures ticking up. The dollar index fell to its

lowest point in a month-and-a-half on the upturn in risk

sentiment.

Turning to corporate news, earnings season is well and truly

underway as traders await more updates from the big U.S. banks

today. Goldman Sachs, which reported on Monday, stumbled in

fixed income and currency trading during the quarter, pushing

its shares down despite headline results beating estimates.

JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo are up next in what's

expected to be another impressive corporate scorecard, despite

the oil shock at the end of the quarter.

The IMF, meantime, will have the unenviable task today of

releasing its forecasts for the world economy for this year.

Both it and the World Bank have already signaled they will

downgrade their global growth projections and raise their

inflation predictions because of the war.

On the U.S. macro front, existing home sales fell to a

nine-month low in March, pushed down by a lackluster labor

market and stumbling household purchasing power and wealth. The

outlook for the year appears less than stellar as mortgage rates

rise amid the Iran war.

Elsewhere, China's exports fell in March as the Iran war

appeared to hamper AI-driven tech demand. Outbound shipments

grew by just 2.5%, a five-month low, and far below the 21.8%

surge seen in February. Economists polled by Reuters had

forecast growth of 8.3%.

Chart of the day

Goldman Sachs beat expectations for quarterly profit on Monday,

driven by strength in dealmaking and equities trading, but the

U.S. investment bank's shares fell 2% on weakness in fixed

income markets, interest rate trading, mortgages and credit. The

bank's revenue hit $17.2 billion, however, its highest

three-month tally since a record of $17.7 billion in Q1 2021.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. March PPI (8:30 a.m. EDT)

* U.S. 12-month bill auction (11:30 a.m. EDT)

* Fed's Michael Barr, Boston Fed's Susan Collins, Richmond

Fed's Thomas Barkin, and Philadelphia Fed's Anna Paulson all

speak

* U.S. corporate earnings: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo

* IMF publishes its latest World Economic Outlook (9 a.m.

EDT)

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.