(The opinions expressed here are those of the author.)

By Yoruk Bahceli

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and

global markets today

U.S. stocks look set to build on Friday's jump with investor

hopes resting on a Fed rate cut materialising in December, but

the question is how much further prices can bounce?

I'll get into all the market-moving news below, but first we

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Today's Market Minute

* The United States and Ukraine were set to continue work on

Monday on a plan to end the war with Russia after agreeing to

modify an earlier proposal that was widely seen as too favorable

to Moscow. The two sides said in a joint statement they had

drafted a "refined peace framework."

* BHP should move on from Anglo American and focus on its

growth

strategy, investors said on Monday, after the Australian

company's last-minute appeal to the London-listed firm that is

nearing a $60 billion tie-up with Canada's Teck Resources.

* U.S. President Donald Trump's Department of Government

Efficiency has disbanded with eight months left to its mandate,

ending an initiative launched with fanfare as a symbol of

Trump's pledge to slash the government's size but which critics

say delivered few measurable savings.

* Oil prices eased on hopes for a U.S.-brokered Ukraine

ceasefire,

but diesel spreads remain stubbornly high as the war keeps

global supplies squeezed with little sign of relief, writes

Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.

* The weak COP30 statement that omitted any mention of

fossil

fuels was probably the best outcome that could have been

realistically expected of the climate summit, argues ROI Asia

commodities columnist Clyde Russell.

Will the Fed come to stock markets' rescue?

U.S. stocks look set to build on Friday's jump with all

investor hopes resting on a Fed rate cut materialising in

December, but the question is how much further they can bounce?

Futures tied to the S&P 500 were up 0.3% in London trade and

those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq index were up 0.5%, set to add to

roughly 1% jumps on Friday, when investors cheered comments by

influential Fed policymaker John Williams that the bank can cut

interest rates "in the near term".

Traders now see a roughly 60% chance that the Fed will cut

rates in December, up from around 40% on Thursday.

Yet those futures, which had been up around 1% earlier, have

already cut their gains well before the U.S. open. Both indexes

are still set for their biggest monthly drops since March, with

the Nasdaq still down over 6%.

Besides the concerns around AI valuations that drove that

selloff in the first place, optimism around a Fed cut doesn't

change that October and November's payroll data -- key to rates

expectations -- will only be released after the bank's December

meeting.

And policymakers are split on the path ahead. Boston Federal

Reserve President Susan Collins said on Saturday she's still

leaning against a December rate cut.

U.S. markets will also have to digest retail sales, producer

price and jobless claims data this week.

They looked subdued otherwise, with the dollar down 0.2%

against a basket of currencies, while Treasury yields were

largely steady after sizeable drops last week.

In a sign that risk sentiment remains fragile, Bitcoin dropping

2% to around $86,000, though it has bounced off Friday's low

that had left it near the key $80,000 level below which losses

may accelerate.

Markets remain on alert for intervention in the Yen by

Japanese authorities, who tend to move in quiet periods with

lower liquidity. The yen edged lower against the dollar on

Monday, nearing last week's 10-month lows.

Thanksgiving could be an opportunity, but analysts are already

questioning how effective a move might be.

In Europe, Ukraine peace talks remain front and centre after the

U.S. and Ukraine agreed to modify an earlier proposal seen as

too favourable to Moscow.

European defense stocks, while sitting on huge gains this

year, continued to slide on Monday, dropping to their lowest

since August.

Geopolitics aside, the big focus is on Britain's much

anticipated Wednesday budget, when finance minister Rachel

Reeves will have to convince investors that she can deliver

credible belt-tightening plans after U-turning on plans to raise

income tax levels.

But there is some good fiscal news too. Italy saw its credit

rating upgrade from Moody's in 23 years on Friday.

Chart of the day

U.S. equity markets have a long way to come back after last

week, still sitting on heavy losses in November that have set

them up for their worst monthly performance since March, when

tariff worries rattled markets ahead of the big intra-month

swing in April.

Today's events to watch

* Two-year U.S. Treasury auction offering $69 billion

* U.S. corporate earnings include Agilent Technologies,

Symbotic Inc, Keysight Technologies, Woodward Inc, Zoom

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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(By Yoruk Bahceli; Editing by Anna Szymanski)