Dec 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asia kicks off the final full trading week of 2024 with the
monthly 'China data dump' landing on Monday, and with investors
leaning toward keeping the stock market bull run going as
central banks around the world go into easing mode.
Several G10 central banks last week cut interest rates or, in
the case of Australia, signaled it may do so soon, and
authorities in China pledged to dive even deeper into monetary
and fiscal stimulus territory.
This helped buoy risk appetite, despite the inclination to
take chips off the table ahead of year-end and with Wall Street
at record highs.
Another wave of G10 central bank decisions, including from the
Federal Reserve, will go a long way to determining whether that
continues this week. A quarter point rate cut from the Fed is a
near certainty, according to futures market pricing, while in
Asia, the focus will be on the Bank of Japan.
The BOJ is heading in the other direction, slowly
'normalizing' policy after years of zero interest rates. Could
the stronger-than-expected 'Tankan' survey of business
conditions last week seal a rate hike this week?
Economist Phil Suttle thinks it should.
"The question now is whether the BoJ has the confidence to
make the move or whether ...(Governor Kazuo) Ueda might prefer
to wait (for what?). Importantly, rate normalization would be
presented as a success, not as a problem," Suttle wrote on
Friday.
Meanwhile, the South Korean won could come under further selling
pressure after President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment on
Saturday, the latest twist in a remarkable crisis sparked by his
surprise decision to impose martial law on Dec. 3.
Monday's economic calendar in Asia is packed with potential
market-moving releases, especially the clutch of Chinese
economic indicators including industrial production, fixed asset
investment, retail sales, house prices and unemployment.
This comes days after Beijing said it will increase the budget
deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to support
growth. China is girding for more trade tensions with the U.S.,
and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Friday
that Washington won't rule out sanctions on banks and further
curbs on "dark fleet" tankers.
Investors have welcomed Beijing's stimulus announcements
since September. But only time will tell if they will pull the
economy out of a property sector bust and deflation, revive
growth, and draw investment back into the country.
Official data on Monday are expected to show that the annual
rate of industrial production and fixed asset investment growth
last month held steady, while retail sales growth dipped
slightly.
House price data for November also will be released after
October's 5.9% year-on-year fall was the steepest decline in
almost 20 years.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Monday:
- China 'data dump' (November)
- Australia, India manufacturing PMIs (November)
- Japan machinery orders (October)