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MORNING BID ASIA-2024 bull run in home stretch, China 'data dump' eyed
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MORNING BID ASIA-2024 bull run in home stretch, China 'data dump' eyed
Dec 15, 2024 2:21 PM

Dec 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asia kicks off the final full trading week of 2024 with the

monthly 'China data dump' landing on Monday, and with investors

leaning toward keeping the stock market bull run going as

central banks around the world go into easing mode.

Several G10 central banks last week cut interest rates or, in

the case of Australia, signaled it may do so soon, and

authorities in China pledged to dive even deeper into monetary

and fiscal stimulus territory.

This helped buoy risk appetite, despite the inclination to

take chips off the table ahead of year-end and with Wall Street

at record highs.

Another wave of G10 central bank decisions, including from the

Federal Reserve, will go a long way to determining whether that

continues this week. A quarter point rate cut from the Fed is a

near certainty, according to futures market pricing, while in

Asia, the focus will be on the Bank of Japan.

The BOJ is heading in the other direction, slowly

'normalizing' policy after years of zero interest rates. Could

the stronger-than-expected 'Tankan' survey of business

conditions last week seal a rate hike this week?

Economist Phil Suttle thinks it should.

"The question now is whether the BoJ has the confidence to

make the move or whether ...(Governor Kazuo) Ueda might prefer

to wait (for what?). Importantly, rate normalization would be

presented as a success, not as a problem," Suttle wrote on

Friday.

Meanwhile, the South Korean won could come under further selling

pressure after President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment on

Saturday, the latest twist in a remarkable crisis sparked by his

surprise decision to impose martial law on Dec. 3.

Monday's economic calendar in Asia is packed with potential

market-moving releases, especially the clutch of Chinese

economic indicators including industrial production, fixed asset

investment, retail sales, house prices and unemployment.

This comes days after Beijing said it will increase the budget

deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to support

growth. China is girding for more trade tensions with the U.S.,

and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Friday

that Washington won't rule out sanctions on banks and further

curbs on "dark fleet" tankers.

Investors have welcomed Beijing's stimulus announcements

since September. But only time will tell if they will pull the

economy out of a property sector bust and deflation, revive

growth, and draw investment back into the country.

Official data on Monday are expected to show that the annual

rate of industrial production and fixed asset investment growth

last month held steady, while retail sales growth dipped

slightly.

House price data for November also will be released after

October's 5.9% year-on-year fall was the steepest decline in

almost 20 years.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- China 'data dump' (November)

- Australia, India manufacturing PMIs (November)

- Japan machinery orders (October)

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