June 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
No Wall Street, no problem.
Investors in Asia go into Thursday in a bullish mood with
Asian stocks at two-year highs, boosted by strength in tech and
calm across global markets that is keeping a lid on volatility
and loosening financial conditions.
U.S. markets were closed on Wednesday but investors weren't
fazed by any potential liquidity concerns - the MSCI Asia
ex-Japan index leaped more than 1% to its highest since April
2022, and the MSCI World index hit a record high.
Highlights from Thursday's Asia and Pacific calendar are
interest rate decisions from China and Indonesia, and first
quarter GDP figures from New Zealand.
The People's Bank of China is likely to keep benchmark
lending rates unchanged, after holding its medium-term lending
facility (MLF) loans steady earlier this week. Markets mostly
use MLF rates as a guide to lending benchmarks.
Economic activity and indicators remain sluggish though, and
pressure to ease in the coming months is mounting.
Bank Indonesia is also expected to keep its key interest
rate on hold, at 6.25%, according to a Reuters poll of
economists who pushed out their first rate cut call to early
next year from late this year.
That change in outlook was partly driven by the rupiah's
slide to four-year lows against the U.S. dollar, which led the
central bank to unexpectedly raise rates in April.
Inflation has been within the bank's 1.5%-3.5% target range
for almost a year, but the U.S. Federal Reserve's 'higher for
longer' policy stance and dollar's persistent strength have
tempered rate cut hopes.
It's not inconceivable that New Zealand slipped into a
technical recession in Q1, albeit an extremely mild one. The
consensus forecast in a Reuters poll is for quarter-on-quarter
GDP growth of 0.1%, following a contraction of 0.1% in the
October-December period.
Back on the market front, if Wednesday's break higher in
Asian stocks is to be a springboard, China may have to get out
of its funk - while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index has risen 12%
from its mid-April low, China's blue chip CSI 300 index has
flat-lined.
Asian tech shares are, unsurprisingly, on an Nvidia-inspired
roll. Hong Kong's Hang Seng tech index jumped 3.7% on Wednesday,
one of its best days this year.
If U.S. financial conditions are a key driver for markets
more broadly, investors in Asia should be bullish - they are now
the loosest since March, according to Goldman Sachs, and the
loosest in two and a half years, according to the Chicago Fed.
In currencies, the yen remains anchored near lows that
prompted Tokyo to intervene recently, but traders appear relaxed
- one-month dollar/yen implied volatility fell for a sixth day
on Wednesday to its lowest since April 8.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Thursday:
- China interest rate decision
- Indonesia interest rate decision
- New Zealand GDP (Q1)