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MORNING BID ASIA-Asian stocks at 2-year high; China, Indonesia set rates
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MORNING BID ASIA-Asian stocks at 2-year high; China, Indonesia set rates
Jun 19, 2024 3:13 PM

June 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

No Wall Street, no problem.

Investors in Asia go into Thursday in a bullish mood with

Asian stocks at two-year highs, boosted by strength in tech and

calm across global markets that is keeping a lid on volatility

and loosening financial conditions.

U.S. markets were closed on Wednesday but investors weren't

fazed by any potential liquidity concerns - the MSCI Asia

ex-Japan index leaped more than 1% to its highest since April

2022, and the MSCI World index hit a record high.

Highlights from Thursday's Asia and Pacific calendar are

interest rate decisions from China and Indonesia, and first

quarter GDP figures from New Zealand.

The People's Bank of China is likely to keep benchmark

lending rates unchanged, after holding its medium-term lending

facility (MLF) loans steady earlier this week. Markets mostly

use MLF rates as a guide to lending benchmarks.

Economic activity and indicators remain sluggish though, and

pressure to ease in the coming months is mounting.

Bank Indonesia is also expected to keep its key interest

rate on hold, at 6.25%, according to a Reuters poll of

economists who pushed out their first rate cut call to early

next year from late this year.

That change in outlook was partly driven by the rupiah's

slide to four-year lows against the U.S. dollar, which led the

central bank to unexpectedly raise rates in April.

Inflation has been within the bank's 1.5%-3.5% target range

for almost a year, but the U.S. Federal Reserve's 'higher for

longer' policy stance and dollar's persistent strength have

tempered rate cut hopes.

It's not inconceivable that New Zealand slipped into a

technical recession in Q1, albeit an extremely mild one. The

consensus forecast in a Reuters poll is for quarter-on-quarter

GDP growth of 0.1%, following a contraction of 0.1% in the

October-December period.

Back on the market front, if Wednesday's break higher in

Asian stocks is to be a springboard, China may have to get out

of its funk - while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index has risen 12%

from its mid-April low, China's blue chip CSI 300 index has

flat-lined.

Asian tech shares are, unsurprisingly, on an Nvidia-inspired

roll. Hong Kong's Hang Seng tech index jumped 3.7% on Wednesday,

one of its best days this year.

If U.S. financial conditions are a key driver for markets

more broadly, investors in Asia should be bullish - they are now

the loosest since March, according to Goldman Sachs, and the

loosest in two and a half years, according to the Chicago Fed.

In currencies, the yen remains anchored near lows that

prompted Tokyo to intervene recently, but traders appear relaxed

- one-month dollar/yen implied volatility fell for a sixth day

on Wednesday to its lowest since April 8.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Thursday:

- China interest rate decision

- Indonesia interest rate decision

- New Zealand GDP (Q1)

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