Aug 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asian assets are in for a rocky ride on Thursday after soothing
words from the Bank of Japan's deputy governor about recent yen
volatility were overtaken by a negative turn in U.S. markets, a
reminder that market conditions remain challenging.
Wednesday's U.S. session saw the dollar, bond yields and
stock market volatility rise and Wall Street fall. Amongst all,
that was a weak $42 billion auction of 10-year Treasury bonds.
The auction was a big disappointment. Its 'tail' - how much
higher the yield at sale was relative to where it traded before
- was a massive 3 basis points, and demand was 2.32 times the
amount of debt on offer, the weakest since December 2022.
Also, bear in mind that MSCI's benchmark Asian and emerging
market stock indexes chalked up strong gains on Wednesday of
1.8% and 1.9%, respectively, their best performance in two
months. They may struggle to maintain much momentum on Thursday.
There is a decent sprinkling of regional event risk in Asia
with Philippines GDP, Japanese current account, Taiwan trade
numbers and a Reserve Bank of India policy decision all on tap.
The BOJ also releases the summary of opinions from its
instantly historic July 30-31 policy meeting that some analysts
say contributed to the current market turbulence.
Investors are still mulling BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi
Uchida's remarks on Wednesday that the central bank won't raise
interest rates when financial markets are unstable, and that
recent market turbulence is "clearly a downside risk to the
economy."
This helped lift the Nikkei and slammed the yen - in late
U.S. trading the currency was down 1.8% against the dollar for
its biggest daily fall in 18 months.
Implied yen volatility eased a little on Wednesday but
remains elevated across the curve. The wild gyrations of the
last few days may have passed, but traders are understandably
maintaining a cautious and defensive stance.
One-week volatility is notably higher than one-month
volatility, an indication that investors still expect quite a
bit of churn in the yen in the coming days.
India's central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady
at 6.50% for a ninth straight meeting, but investors are hoping
for a more dovish tone that could open the door for an October
rate cut.
At this juncture, an October cut seems unlikely. Current
money market pricing attaches roughly a one-in-five chance of a
cut in October and suggests a quarter-point rate cut is only
fully priced by February next year.
Taiwan's July trade figures, meanwhile, will be closely
scrutinized for clues on the strength of AI-related demand for
microchips. Exports in June soared 23.5% from a year earlier
thanks to "strong business opportunities in new technology
applications", the finance ministry said then.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets on Thursday:
- India interest rate decision
- Taiwan trade (July)
- BOJ summary of opinions