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MORNING BID ASIA-BOJ reassurance fades, defences still up
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MORNING BID ASIA-BOJ reassurance fades, defences still up
Aug 7, 2024 3:13 PM

Aug 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian assets are in for a rocky ride on Thursday after soothing

words from the Bank of Japan's deputy governor about recent yen

volatility were overtaken by a negative turn in U.S. markets, a

reminder that market conditions remain challenging.

Wednesday's U.S. session saw the dollar, bond yields and

stock market volatility rise and Wall Street fall. Amongst all,

that was a weak $42 billion auction of 10-year Treasury bonds.

The auction was a big disappointment. Its 'tail' - how much

higher the yield at sale was relative to where it traded before

- was a massive 3 basis points, and demand was 2.32 times the

amount of debt on offer, the weakest since December 2022.

Also, bear in mind that MSCI's benchmark Asian and emerging

market stock indexes chalked up strong gains on Wednesday of

1.8% and 1.9%, respectively, their best performance in two

months. They may struggle to maintain much momentum on Thursday.

There is a decent sprinkling of regional event risk in Asia

with Philippines GDP, Japanese current account, Taiwan trade

numbers and a Reserve Bank of India policy decision all on tap.

The BOJ also releases the summary of opinions from its

instantly historic July 30-31 policy meeting that some analysts

say contributed to the current market turbulence.

Investors are still mulling BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi

Uchida's remarks on Wednesday that the central bank won't raise

interest rates when financial markets are unstable, and that

recent market turbulence is "clearly a downside risk to the

economy."

This helped lift the Nikkei and slammed the yen - in late

U.S. trading the currency was down 1.8% against the dollar for

its biggest daily fall in 18 months.

Implied yen volatility eased a little on Wednesday but

remains elevated across the curve. The wild gyrations of the

last few days may have passed, but traders are understandably

maintaining a cautious and defensive stance.

One-week volatility is notably higher than one-month

volatility, an indication that investors still expect quite a

bit of churn in the yen in the coming days.

India's central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady

at 6.50% for a ninth straight meeting, but investors are hoping

for a more dovish tone that could open the door for an October

rate cut.

At this juncture, an October cut seems unlikely. Current

money market pricing attaches roughly a one-in-five chance of a

cut in October and suggests a quarter-point rate cut is only

fully priced by February next year.

Taiwan's July trade figures, meanwhile, will be closely

scrutinized for clues on the strength of AI-related demand for

microchips. Exports in June soared 23.5% from a year earlier

thanks to "strong business opportunities in new technology

applications", the finance ministry said then.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Thursday:

- India interest rate decision

- Taiwan trade (July)

- BOJ summary of opinions

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