Nov 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Market sentiment in Asia will be fragile at best on Friday as
high and rising bond yields sink their teeth into risky assets,
and worries about escalating AI costs appear to slam the brakes
on the megacap, Big Tech rally.
There probably won't be any positive spillover from Wall
Street after the S&P and Nasdaq on Thursday posted their
steepest one-day losses in two months.
However, shares in Amazon ( AMZN ) and Intel ( INTC ) rose sharply in
after-hours trading following their earnings reports on
Thursday, but Apple shares dipped. Traders will likely play it
safe ahead of U.S. employment data on Friday and ahead of the
weekend.
There's a sprinkling of potentially market-moving events in
Asia on Friday, namely purchasing managers index reports from
several countries including China, Indonesian inflation, and
Japanese earnings from Mitsui ( MITSF ), Nomura, Mitsubishi ( MSBHF ) and others.
Perhaps more importantly though, the so-called 'bond
vigilantes' are flexing their muscles again, pushing up yields
across the developed world - with the possible exception of
Canada - in an attempt to enforce some degree of discipline on
what they consider fiscally lax governments.
A bearish narrative coalescing around three main facets -
fiscal slippage, huge debt supply coming down the pike, and
sticky inflation resulting from higher spending - is dominating
bond market sentiment right now.
Yields are on the rise, with UK gilts feeling the heat most
in the last 24 hours following Chancellor Rachel Reeves' debut
budget on Wednesday. And on Thursday, the Bank of Japan kept
rates on hold but left the door open to a near-term hike.
For markets in Asia, U.S. bonds are what matter most. And
only days away from the U.S. presidential election the signs are
flashing amber, if not red - implied volatility and the 'term
premium' are the highest in a year, and the 10-year yield has
risen more after the first cut in this Fed easing cycle than any
since 1989.
If that wasn't bad enough for Asian markets, the dollar just
clocked its biggest monthly rise in two and a half years. Most
Asian stock markets lost ground in October and the MSCI
Asia/Pacific ex-Japan index fell 4.5%.
Chinese stocks lost more than 3% in October, perhaps
unsurprising given the previous month's 21% rise, while the weak
yen has helped Japan's Nikkei 225 index post a monthly gain of
around 3%.
Given the nervous global backdrop, however, it would not be
a surprise to see Japanese stocks retreat on Friday, regardless
of the exchange rate.
Asia's main data point on Friday is China's 'unofficial'
manufacturing PMI. This follows the Bureau of Statistics PMI
reports on Thursday that showed manufacturing activity crept
back into expansion territory in October for the first time
since April.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Friday:
- Reaction to Apple, Amazon ( AMZN ) results
- China PMI (October)
- Indonesia inflation (October)