June 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
The monthly Chinese 'data dump' kicks off the global trading
week on Monday, with the slew of top-tier indicators likely to
give investors a measure of how much the world's second largest
economy is struggling to gain momentum.
Producer and consumer prices last week confirmed that the
threat of deflation still hangs over China, and retail sales,
business investment, industrial production, and house price
figures on Monday will give a clearer picture of economic
activity.
China's central bank is widely expected to leave a key
policy rate unchanged when rolling over maturing medium-term
loans on Monday, with worsening interest margins and a weakening
currency hampering authorities' ability to ease policy.
In a Reuters poll of 31 market watchers, 30 expect the rate
on the one-year medium-term lending facility loan to be left at
2.50%. The lone outlier projected a marginal cut of 5 basis
points.
This comes amid a generally upbeat global market environment
with hopes of a U.S. 'soft landing', a relaxed Fed, subdued
volatility, and continued optimism in tech pushing Wall Street
and world stocks to record highs.
Disinflation in the United States appears to be broadening
out across consumer and producer prices, and the impact on
market rates is clear to see - the 10-year Treasury yield on
Friday hit a two and a half-month low below 4.20%, and rates
traders are fully pricing in two quarter-point cuts this year.
That's a dovish stance relative to the Fed's revised
projections of one cut this year, a position Minneapolis Fed
President Neel Kashkari reiterated on Sunday.
Falling U.S. yields may benefit Asian and emerging markets,
but a strengthening dollar could counteract this. The dollar
closed last week at a six-week high, and CFTC positioning data
on Friday showed that funds increased their long dollar
positions for the first time in seven weeks.
The U.S. currency starts the week on the front foot,
especially against the yen, after the Bank of Japan's cautious
stance on Friday on raising interest rates and reducing its
balance sheet dragged the yen and Japanese bond yields lower.
This could lend support to Japanese stocks on Monday.
Chinese stocks, however, remain under pressure. As the yuan
fell to a seven-month low on Friday, stocks hit their lowest in
nearly two months.
Beijing appears to be getting nervous. China's securities
regulator on Sunday said it will step up curbs on short-selling
activities, and will tighten supervision of illegal share
reductions by listed companies' major shareholders.
In South Korea, meanwhile, a senior presidential official
said this weekend that stabilizing prices are laying the
conditions for the central bank to cut interest rates.
And in corporate news, Hyundai Motor India on Saturday
sought regulatory approval to list on the Mumbai stock market in
what could be India's biggest IPO ever.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Monday:
- China 'data dump' (May)
- Japan machinery orders (April)
- South Korea trade (May, revised)