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MORNING BID ASIA-Bracing for Chinese data deluge
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MORNING BID ASIA-Bracing for Chinese data deluge
Jun 16, 2024 3:06 PM

June 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

The monthly Chinese 'data dump' kicks off the global trading

week on Monday, with the slew of top-tier indicators likely to

give investors a measure of how much the world's second largest

economy is struggling to gain momentum.

Producer and consumer prices last week confirmed that the

threat of deflation still hangs over China, and retail sales,

business investment, industrial production, and house price

figures on Monday will give a clearer picture of economic

activity.

China's central bank is widely expected to leave a key

policy rate unchanged when rolling over maturing medium-term

loans on Monday, with worsening interest margins and a weakening

currency hampering authorities' ability to ease policy.

In a Reuters poll of 31 market watchers, 30 expect the rate

on the one-year medium-term lending facility loan to be left at

2.50%. The lone outlier projected a marginal cut of 5 basis

points.

This comes amid a generally upbeat global market environment

with hopes of a U.S. 'soft landing', a relaxed Fed, subdued

volatility, and continued optimism in tech pushing Wall Street

and world stocks to record highs.

Disinflation in the United States appears to be broadening

out across consumer and producer prices, and the impact on

market rates is clear to see - the 10-year Treasury yield on

Friday hit a two and a half-month low below 4.20%, and rates

traders are fully pricing in two quarter-point cuts this year.

That's a dovish stance relative to the Fed's revised

projections of one cut this year, a position Minneapolis Fed

President Neel Kashkari reiterated on Sunday.

Falling U.S. yields may benefit Asian and emerging markets,

but a strengthening dollar could counteract this. The dollar

closed last week at a six-week high, and CFTC positioning data

on Friday showed that funds increased their long dollar

positions for the first time in seven weeks.

The U.S. currency starts the week on the front foot,

especially against the yen, after the Bank of Japan's cautious

stance on Friday on raising interest rates and reducing its

balance sheet dragged the yen and Japanese bond yields lower.

This could lend support to Japanese stocks on Monday.

Chinese stocks, however, remain under pressure. As the yuan

fell to a seven-month low on Friday, stocks hit their lowest in

nearly two months.

Beijing appears to be getting nervous. China's securities

regulator on Sunday said it will step up curbs on short-selling

activities, and will tighten supervision of illegal share

reductions by listed companies' major shareholders.

In South Korea, meanwhile, a senior presidential official

said this weekend that stabilizing prices are laying the

conditions for the central bank to cut interest rates.

And in corporate news, Hyundai Motor India on Saturday

sought regulatory approval to list on the Mumbai stock market in

what could be India's biggest IPO ever.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- China 'data dump' (May)

- Japan machinery orders (April)

- South Korea trade (May, revised)

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