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MORNING BID ASIA-Bracing for heavy selloff
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MORNING BID ASIA-Bracing for heavy selloff
Sep 8, 2024 5:50 PM

Sept 9 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian stocks are set to open sharply lower on Monday, tracking

Wall Street's slump on Friday after investors interpreted U.S.

jobs data and comments from top Fed officials as a 'worst of

both worlds' outcome - further labor market weakness, but little

appetite to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week.

Japanese futures point to the Nikkei 225 index opening down

more than 3%, dragged lower also by the yen's strength, another

indication of the risk aversion permeating world markets.

The S&P 500 and the Dow's losses on Friday secured the

biggest weekly drop since March 2023, and the Nasdaq's 2.6% fall

confirmed its biggest weekly loss since January 2022.

If heightened anxiety over the U.S. economic and policy

outlook were not enough, Asia's calendar is packed with top-tier

economic indicators from China, Japan and Taiwan that will be of

potential global significance too.

Japan releases bank lending, trade, current account and

revised GDP growth figures, Taiwan releases trade data, and

perhaps most important of all, China unveils producer and

consumer price inflation figures.

Overseas investors are growing more cautious on Asian

stocks. LSEG data show they were net sellers in August, while JP

Morgan recently ditched its buy recommendation on Chinese

stocks. Chinese stocks on Friday closed at a seven-month low.

The signals from the United States on Friday were probably

more nuanced than markets' negative reaction would suggest. The

unemployment rate ticked lower, wage growth accelerated and

officials reaffirmed their confidence in a 'soft landing'.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller or New York Fed President

John Williams both said on Friday that it is time to cut rates.

But in prepared remarks and question and answer sessions,

neither signaled that a 50 basis point cut is in the offing.

Oil and commodity prices, meanwhile, are falling rapidly,

another sign of investors' growing unease about the global

economic picture. Asia's calendar on Monday will deliver another

few pieces of that jigsaw.

Figures from Beijing are expected to show that annual

consumer inflation in China accelerated to 0.7% in August from

0.5% in July.

That would be welcome progress. But the fight against

deflation is nowhere near over - data on Monday are expected to

show that factory gate prices fell 1.4% year-on-year in August,

nearly twice the pace of July's 0.8% fall.

Former central bank governor Yi Gang on Friday urged the

country to do more to fight deflationary pressures with more

fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy.

Japan's second quarter GDP growth is expected to be revised

up slightly, while Taiwan's export growth is forecast to have

more than doubled in August to 7.35%. Taiwan's TSMC is the

world's largest contract chipmaker and Nvidia's chip

manufacturing partner.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Monday:

- China PPI, CPI inflation (August)

- Japan GDP (Q2, revised)

- Taiwan trade (August)

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