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MORNING BID ASIA-Buoyant dollar keeps bulls in check
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MORNING BID ASIA-Buoyant dollar keeps bulls in check
Dec 2, 2024 2:02 PM

Dec 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Investors in Asia go into Tuesday's session with a spring in

their step following the upswing in global stocks and risk

appetite on Monday, but wary that the buoyant U.S. dollar can

extinguish that optimism in a flash.

Also keeping regional sentiment in check will be unease around

China's economic predicament, even though purchasing managers

index data over the last 72 hours showed that factory activity

in November expanded at the fastest pace in months.

Much of that - the pickup in Chinese manufacturing activity,

deepening disquiet about the outlook, and the dollar's renewed

vigor - is tied to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's hardline

stance on trade and threats of heavy tariffs when he takes

office next month.

His social media broadside on Saturday to countries

contemplating backing away from the "mighty" U.S. dollar appears

to have had an initial effect. Excluding Nov. 6, the day after

the U.S. election, the dollar's 0.6% appreciation on Monday was

its biggest rise in six months.

Europe's economic and political travails, especially in France,

are certainly at play, while the yen is drawing support from

bets that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates later

this month.

But the dollar's independent strength cannot be ignored, and

bullish sentiment toward emerging markets is rarely sustained

for long when the dollar is on the march.

Nor can China's weakness be ignored. Some analysts say the

positive PMI surprises are due to a ramp up in production before

tariffs from Washington are levied, and China's underlying

economic health remains fragile.

China's bond market would appear to back up that assertion.

The 10-year yield on Monday fell below 2% for the first time,

while the 30-year yield is now below its Japanese equivalent for

the first time in at least 20 years.

Still, investors will draw comfort from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's

rise to fresh peaks on Monday, and U.S. Federal Reserve Governor

Christopher Waller saying he is leaning toward a rate cut later

this month.

Remarkably, after Monday's spike the S&P 500 has registered

more than 50 record highs this year. But will that be enough to

lift Asian markets on Tuesday?

Asia's calendar on Tuesday is light, with South Korean

inflation the only major economic indicator on tap. It is one of

several CPI releases this week following Indonesia's on Monday

and ahead of the latest snapshots from the Philippines, Taiwan

and Thailand later in the week.

Economists polled by Reuters expect South Korea's annual

rate of headline inflation in November to accelerate to 1.7%

from a three and a half year low of 1.30% in October. That would

mark the biggest jump since August last year.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Tuesday:

- South Korea consumer inflation (November)

- Bank of Thailand governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput

speaks

- Thailand's finance minister Pichai Chunhavajira speaks

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