May 27 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Trading volume and activity across Asia on Monday will be
among the lightest this year owing to the U.S. and UK public
holidays, but markets are open and there is no shortage of
issues for investors to chew on.
The economic calendar sees the release of Chinese industrial
profits figures for April and trade data from Hong Kong, while
South Korea hosts a trilateral meeting in Seoul with China and
Japan.
With the world's two biggest FX trading centers London and New
York both closed, yen traders may be on intervention alert.
Japan's last two suspected bouts of yen-buying action recently
came in extremely illiquid hours of the global day, one of which
was May 1 when many countries' markets were shut.
The dollar is back up at 157.00 yen, and the latest
Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures show that after
three weeks of reducing short yen positions, speculators are now
loading up on them again.
Could Tokyo be tempted to catch the market off guard again?
While trading volume will be thin in Asia on Monday, the
global investment backdrop remains constructive. Although bond
yields are rising and central banks' are leaning increasingly
hawkish, markets remain buoyant.
In large part, this is being led by U.S. developments -
strong earnings, solid growth and extremely subdued volatility.
Indeed, a key driver of the bullish momentum globally is the low
level of volatility.
The Chinese investment picture, of course, is less rosy, and
perhaps not coincidentally, China-Taiwan tensions are rising.
Downward pressure on the yuan's exchange rate appears to be
building again. The spot yuan just had its biggest weekly fall
against the dollar since mid-March, and the central bank's daily
dollar/yuan fixing rate on Friday was above 7.1100 for the first
time since January.
Foreign direct investment into China in January-April
plunged nearly 28% from the same period last year, and Goldman
Sachs analysts estimate that FX outflows in April accelerated to
$86 billion from a $39 billion outflow in March.
While many benchmark equity indexes around the world have
shot to new highs recently, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rebounded
as much as 20%, Chinese stocks have found the going much
tougher.
And China's economic surprises index has continued to inch
lower in recent weeks too - on Friday it slipped to its lowest
level since February 8.
All that comes despite Beijing taking fresh steps to address the
property sector crisis. The week ahead is a quiet one in terms
of Chinese economic indicators, but April industrial profits on
Monday is a big one for investors.
Profits fell in March, complementing a slew of economic
indicators for the month such as retail sales and industrial
output that pointed to frail domestic demand.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Monday:
- South Korea, Japan, China trilateral meeting
- China industrial profits (April)
- Hong Kong trade (April)