April 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asian markets open on Tuesday against an extremely challenging
backdrop of slumping global equity and bond prices, a rising
dollar, and the yen's slide to lows that many analysts reckon
will prompt direct intervention from Japanese authorities.
U.S. and world stocks fell to two-month lows - the S&P 500
chalked up its biggest two-day decline in over a year - as the
10-year U.S. Treasury yield and dollar index made fresh 2024
highs.
That's a tightening of financial conditions that will only
weigh on Asian markets. Goldman Sachs' aggregate emerging market
financial conditions index hit a five-month high on Friday, and
almost certainly rose further on Monday.
It is the backdrop against which China releases top-tier
economic data including March industrial production, retail
sales, fixed asset investment and house prices, which will all
be wrapped up in first quarter GDP growth figures.
Chinese stocks rallied on Monday after the securities regulator
on Friday issued draft rules to improve the market and protect
investors' interests, but that momentum is unlikely to last.
Recent economic data have fallen short of expectations, most
notably trade, which saw a sharp contraction in exports, and
credit growth, which hit a record low on a broad basis.
China's property crisis remains front of mind too, after
state-backed developer China Vanke said it was facing short-term
liquidity pressure and operational difficulties. The firm's Hong
Kong-listed shares hit a record low on Monday.
Tuesday's official figures are expected to show China's growth
slowed to 4.6% year-on-year from 5.2% in the previous three
months, maintaining pressure on policymakers to unveil more
stimulus measures.
That would be the slowest rate of expansion since the first
quarter of 2023.
China's growth will figure highly in discussions between U.S.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese officials on the
sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank
spring meetings in Washington this week.
China's central bank on Monday fixed the yuan at its weakest
level against the dollar since March 25. The onshore yuan hit a
five-month low close to 7.24 per dollar, just inside its daily
trading band limit.
There are no such overt limits on Japan's yen, of course,
and even if there were, the currency's relentless slide this
year would probably have smashed them anyway.
Once again, FX traders will be on high alert for yen-buying
intervention from Japanese authorities after the yen slumped to
a new 34-year low through 154.00 per dollar on Monday. It is the
worst-performing G10 and main Asian currency this year.
Tokyo hasn't acted yet, but if it does, the yen's reversal could
be powerful - hedge funds are sitting on their largest net short
yen position in 17 years.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Tuesday:
- China GDP (Q1)
- China industrial production, retail sales, investment,
house prices (March)
- Indonesia consumer confidence (March)