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MORNING BID ASIA-China GDP eyed as investor sentiment crumbles
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MORNING BID ASIA-China GDP eyed as investor sentiment crumbles
Apr 15, 2024 3:13 PM

April 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian markets open on Tuesday against an extremely challenging

backdrop of slumping global equity and bond prices, a rising

dollar, and the yen's slide to lows that many analysts reckon

will prompt direct intervention from Japanese authorities.

U.S. and world stocks fell to two-month lows - the S&P 500

chalked up its biggest two-day decline in over a year - as the

10-year U.S. Treasury yield and dollar index made fresh 2024

highs.

That's a tightening of financial conditions that will only

weigh on Asian markets. Goldman Sachs' aggregate emerging market

financial conditions index hit a five-month high on Friday, and

almost certainly rose further on Monday.

It is the backdrop against which China releases top-tier

economic data including March industrial production, retail

sales, fixed asset investment and house prices, which will all

be wrapped up in first quarter GDP growth figures.

Chinese stocks rallied on Monday after the securities regulator

on Friday issued draft rules to improve the market and protect

investors' interests, but that momentum is unlikely to last.

Recent economic data have fallen short of expectations, most

notably trade, which saw a sharp contraction in exports, and

credit growth, which hit a record low on a broad basis.

China's property crisis remains front of mind too, after

state-backed developer China Vanke said it was facing short-term

liquidity pressure and operational difficulties. The firm's Hong

Kong-listed shares hit a record low on Monday.

Tuesday's official figures are expected to show China's growth

slowed to 4.6% year-on-year from 5.2% in the previous three

months, maintaining pressure on policymakers to unveil more

stimulus measures.

That would be the slowest rate of expansion since the first

quarter of 2023.

China's growth will figure highly in discussions between U.S.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese officials on the

sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank

spring meetings in Washington this week.

China's central bank on Monday fixed the yuan at its weakest

level against the dollar since March 25. The onshore yuan hit a

five-month low close to 7.24 per dollar, just inside its daily

trading band limit.

There are no such overt limits on Japan's yen, of course,

and even if there were, the currency's relentless slide this

year would probably have smashed them anyway.

Once again, FX traders will be on high alert for yen-buying

intervention from Japanese authorities after the yen slumped to

a new 34-year low through 154.00 per dollar on Monday. It is the

worst-performing G10 and main Asian currency this year.

Tokyo hasn't acted yet, but if it does, the yen's reversal could

be powerful - hedge funds are sitting on their largest net short

yen position in 17 years.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Tuesday:

- China GDP (Q1)

- China industrial production, retail sales, investment,

house prices (March)

- Indonesia consumer confidence (March)

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