Sept 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asia kicks off the trading week on Monday with investors
likely to give a big thumbs down to yet another batch of
uniformly disappointing economic indicators from China, while at
the same time cheering one of Wall Street's best weeks of the
year.
Fueled by growing hopes that the Federal Reserve will kick
off its interest rate-cutting cycle with a 50-basis-point cut
rather than a quarter-point move later this week, U.S. stocks
rose solidly on Friday, which could provide a good springboard
for Asia on Monday.
The S&P 500 got to within 1% of its July 15 all-time high
and the Nasdaq ended the week up 6%, its best week since
October. Volatility across asset classes fell - the 'MOVE' index
of implied Treasury market volatility is at its lowest since
late July.
That's the backdrop to the start of a hugely important week
for markets around the world with the highlight being the Fed's
rate decision and revised economic forecasts on Wednesday, but
maybe even more so for Asian markets.
Japan and Hong Kong release inflation data, and there are
monetary policy decisions from Indonesia, Taiwan, China and the
Bank of Japan later in the week. The local focus on Monday will
be China and yet another wave of worrying economic data.
There are those in the more speculative corners of the
investment community with a higher tolerance for risk, like
hedge funds, who are bound to be looking at China right now as
an attractive bet.
Stocks have fallen 15% in a couple of months and are
flirting with the lowest levels in nearly six years, deflation
hangs heavily over the economy, the growth outlook is darkening,
and authorities appear unable or unwilling to unleash the
stimulus required to turn all that around.
Capital inflows are drying up and outflows are picking up,
forcing the central bank to act more vigorously to protect the
exchange rate. Indeed, the yuan has strengthened notably in
recent weeks.
But the data released on Saturday gave no indication that a
broader and more lasting turnaround is in sight. If anything,
they suggest such a scenario is as far away as ever.
Official figures on Saturday showed that new home prices
fell at their fastest pace in nine years, industrial output
growth slowed to a five-month low, foreign direct investment is
down 31.5% and retail sales weakened further.
And on Friday, meanwhile, the Biden administration locked in
steep tariff hikes on Chinese imports, including a 100% duty on
electric vehicles. Beijing said it would take "necessary
measures to resolutely defend the interests of Chinese
companies."
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets on Monday:
- Germany wholesale price inflation (August)
- New York Fed manufacturing index (September)
- U.S. 3-month, 6-month T-bill auctions