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MORNING BID ASIA-China gloom vs Wall St vroom
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MORNING BID ASIA-China gloom vs Wall St vroom
Sep 15, 2024 5:06 PM

Sept 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asia kicks off the trading week on Monday with investors

likely to give a big thumbs down to yet another batch of

uniformly disappointing economic indicators from China, while at

the same time cheering one of Wall Street's best weeks of the

year.

Fueled by growing hopes that the Federal Reserve will kick

off its interest rate-cutting cycle with a 50-basis-point cut

rather than a quarter-point move later this week, U.S. stocks

rose solidly on Friday, which could provide a good springboard

for Asia on Monday.

The S&P 500 got to within 1% of its July 15 all-time high

and the Nasdaq ended the week up 6%, its best week since

October. Volatility across asset classes fell - the 'MOVE' index

of implied Treasury market volatility is at its lowest since

late July.

That's the backdrop to the start of a hugely important week

for markets around the world with the highlight being the Fed's

rate decision and revised economic forecasts on Wednesday, but

maybe even more so for Asian markets.

Japan and Hong Kong release inflation data, and there are

monetary policy decisions from Indonesia, Taiwan, China and the

Bank of Japan later in the week. The local focus on Monday will

be China and yet another wave of worrying economic data.

There are those in the more speculative corners of the

investment community with a higher tolerance for risk, like

hedge funds, who are bound to be looking at China right now as

an attractive bet.

Stocks have fallen 15% in a couple of months and are

flirting with the lowest levels in nearly six years, deflation

hangs heavily over the economy, the growth outlook is darkening,

and authorities appear unable or unwilling to unleash the

stimulus required to turn all that around.

Capital inflows are drying up and outflows are picking up,

forcing the central bank to act more vigorously to protect the

exchange rate. Indeed, the yuan has strengthened notably in

recent weeks.

But the data released on Saturday gave no indication that a

broader and more lasting turnaround is in sight. If anything,

they suggest such a scenario is as far away as ever.

Official figures on Saturday showed that new home prices

fell at their fastest pace in nine years, industrial output

growth slowed to a five-month low, foreign direct investment is

down 31.5% and retail sales weakened further.

And on Friday, meanwhile, the Biden administration locked in

steep tariff hikes on Chinese imports, including a 100% duty on

electric vehicles. Beijing said it would take "necessary

measures to resolutely defend the interests of Chinese

companies."

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Monday:

- Germany wholesale price inflation (August)

- New York Fed manufacturing index (September)

- U.S. 3-month, 6-month T-bill auctions

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