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MORNING BID ASIA-China trade could disrupt market calm
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MORNING BID ASIA-China trade could disrupt market calm
Sep 11, 2024 4:59 AM

Sept 10 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

The volatility that scarred global markets last week is

giving way to a greater degree of calm early this week, and

traders go into Tuesday's session in Asia looking to claw back

some recent losses before assessing their next move.

Although risk appetite rebounded and volatility sank back

notably on Monday, there was little change in U.S. interest rate

futures' pricing of the Fed's expected easing path - still

nearly 250 basis points of rate cuts by the end of next year,

reflecting significant concerns over the growth outlook.

But with U.S. inflation figures due out on Wednesday,

investors may be reluctant to push too hard in either direction

over the next 36 hours. Asian markets on Tuesday could take

their cue from local drivers.

Economic data releases include Malaysian industrial output,

Indonesian retail sales, and Australia consumer sentiment and

business confidence, while the yen's upward momentum has stalled

and a move back below 143.00 per dollar now looms.

The most important trigger for markets in Asian hours on Tuesday

could be Chinese trade data for August, and the bar of

expectation has been set low.

Exports likely rose 6.5% year-on-year by value, down from

July's 7.0% growth and the slowest pace in four months, while

imports are expected to have grown just 2%, compared with 7.2%

in July, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Weakening export activity amid fears of mounting trade

barriers and tariffs would be alarming in itself, but tepid

import growth also reflects weak domestic demand. Together, they

speak to an economy struggling to generate solid, sustainable

growth.

Then there's the cloud of deflation that refuses to lift.

Figures on Monday showed that consumer inflation ticked up

in August to the fastest pace in six months, but the rise was

due more to higher food costs from weather disruptions than a

recovery in domestic demand. The 0.6% annual rate was still

lower than forecasts.

More worrying, producer price deflation intensified. The

producer price index in August slid 1.8% from a year earlier,

the largest fall in four months, worse than July's 0.8% decline

and below economists' consensus forecast of a 1.4% fall.

Factory gate prices have been in outright deflation for two

years, a key reason why consumer price inflation is unlikely to

accelerate much any time soon.

Meanwhile, Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest contract

chipmaker, will announce its monthly sales figures for August.

Sales in June totaled T$207.87 billion, and rose to T$256.95

billion in July.

Taiwan firms like TSMC are major supplier to Apple ( AAPL ),

Nvidia ( NVDA ) and other tech giants. Their growth helped drive

Taiwan's August exports to an all-time monthly high of nearly

$44 billion, as growing demand for chips to supply the AI

industry offset anemic demand from China.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Tuesday:

- China trade (August)

- TSMC sales figures (August)

- Australia consumer confidence (September)

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