Sept 10 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
The volatility that scarred global markets last week is
giving way to a greater degree of calm early this week, and
traders go into Tuesday's session in Asia looking to claw back
some recent losses before assessing their next move.
Although risk appetite rebounded and volatility sank back
notably on Monday, there was little change in U.S. interest rate
futures' pricing of the Fed's expected easing path - still
nearly 250 basis points of rate cuts by the end of next year,
reflecting significant concerns over the growth outlook.
But with U.S. inflation figures due out on Wednesday,
investors may be reluctant to push too hard in either direction
over the next 36 hours. Asian markets on Tuesday could take
their cue from local drivers.
Economic data releases include Malaysian industrial output,
Indonesian retail sales, and Australia consumer sentiment and
business confidence, while the yen's upward momentum has stalled
and a move back below 143.00 per dollar now looms.
The most important trigger for markets in Asian hours on Tuesday
could be Chinese trade data for August, and the bar of
expectation has been set low.
Exports likely rose 6.5% year-on-year by value, down from
July's 7.0% growth and the slowest pace in four months, while
imports are expected to have grown just 2%, compared with 7.2%
in July, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
Weakening export activity amid fears of mounting trade
barriers and tariffs would be alarming in itself, but tepid
import growth also reflects weak domestic demand. Together, they
speak to an economy struggling to generate solid, sustainable
growth.
Then there's the cloud of deflation that refuses to lift.
Figures on Monday showed that consumer inflation ticked up
in August to the fastest pace in six months, but the rise was
due more to higher food costs from weather disruptions than a
recovery in domestic demand. The 0.6% annual rate was still
lower than forecasts.
More worrying, producer price deflation intensified. The
producer price index in August slid 1.8% from a year earlier,
the largest fall in four months, worse than July's 0.8% decline
and below economists' consensus forecast of a 1.4% fall.
Factory gate prices have been in outright deflation for two
years, a key reason why consumer price inflation is unlikely to
accelerate much any time soon.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest contract
chipmaker, will announce its monthly sales figures for August.
Sales in June totaled T$207.87 billion, and rose to T$256.95
billion in July.
Taiwan firms like TSMC are major supplier to Apple ( AAPL ),
Nvidia ( NVDA ) and other tech giants. Their growth helped drive
Taiwan's August exports to an all-time monthly high of nearly
$44 billion, as growing demand for chips to supply the AI
industry offset anemic demand from China.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets on Tuesday:
- China trade (August)
- TSMC sales figures (August)
- Australia consumer confidence (September)