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MORNING BID ASIA-Divergence, disconnect, but no dislocation ... yet
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MORNING BID ASIA-Divergence, disconnect, but no dislocation ... yet
Jun 17, 2024 3:11 PM

June 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

The start of the trading week has shown that it is becoming

increasingly difficult to navigate, never mind predict, markets

right now, with many asset correlations being weakened by strong

cross-currents of news flow and drivers.

Some markets, like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, are taking on a

momentum of their own, and others, like the U.S. Treasury market

and the dollar, are sending contradictory signals.

Rising U.S. bond yields on Monday failed to support the

dollar, the relentless tech and AI boom delivered record highs

for two of Wall Street's three main indexes yet again, while a

near-2% slump in Japan's Nikkei came out of the blue.

This is the rather fragmented backdrop to the Asian market open

on Tuesday, which is further complicated by the political

turmoil in France that is rocking French assets and markets

across the euro zone.

Will investors in Asia take their cue on Tuesday from higher

Treasury yields, the lower dollar, the U.S. tech frenzy or the

ongoing deterioration in Chinese data and sentiment?

The economic calendar across the continent is light, but the

main event is a big one - the Reserve Bank of Australia's

interest rate decision, and guidance from the accompanying

statement and press conference from Governor Michele Bullock.

Economists polled by Reuters are unanimous in their view

that the RBA will hold its cash rate at 4.35% for a fifth

straight meeting. With inflation remaining above the central

bank's 2% to 3% target since late 2021 and the jobless rate

easing to 4%, an early rate reduction seems unlikely.

A near 90% majority, 38 of 43, predicted interest rates to

remain unchanged next quarter, followed by a 25 basis point cut

to 4.10% in the final quarter of this year.

Australian rates markets are even more hawkish - traders are

pricing in only 15 basis points of easing this year, and barely

50 bps in total by the end of 2025. Excluding the Bank of Japan,

which is in the early stages of tightening policy, that's among

the most hawkish pricing for any G10 central bank.

In China, meanwhile, stocks are at a two-month low and the yuan

is its weakest this year after a weak batch of data on Monday -

especially house prices - did little to lift the economic gloom.

Trade tensions are intensifying too. China has opened an

anti-dumping investigation into imported pork and its

by-products from the European Union, a tit-for-tat response to

curbs on its electric vehicle exports.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, meanwhile, has trimmed its

stake in China's BYD, the world's largest seller of electric

vehicles. The change in stake is tiny, but potentially symbolic

of foreigners' angst at the brewing trade wars.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Tuesday:

- Australia interest rate decision

- Singapore non-oil trade (May)

- Fed's Barkin, Collins, Kugler, Musalem, Logan, Goolsbee

speak

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