June 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
The start of the trading week has shown that it is becoming
increasingly difficult to navigate, never mind predict, markets
right now, with many asset correlations being weakened by strong
cross-currents of news flow and drivers.
Some markets, like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, are taking on a
momentum of their own, and others, like the U.S. Treasury market
and the dollar, are sending contradictory signals.
Rising U.S. bond yields on Monday failed to support the
dollar, the relentless tech and AI boom delivered record highs
for two of Wall Street's three main indexes yet again, while a
near-2% slump in Japan's Nikkei came out of the blue.
This is the rather fragmented backdrop to the Asian market open
on Tuesday, which is further complicated by the political
turmoil in France that is rocking French assets and markets
across the euro zone.
Will investors in Asia take their cue on Tuesday from higher
Treasury yields, the lower dollar, the U.S. tech frenzy or the
ongoing deterioration in Chinese data and sentiment?
The economic calendar across the continent is light, but the
main event is a big one - the Reserve Bank of Australia's
interest rate decision, and guidance from the accompanying
statement and press conference from Governor Michele Bullock.
Economists polled by Reuters are unanimous in their view
that the RBA will hold its cash rate at 4.35% for a fifth
straight meeting. With inflation remaining above the central
bank's 2% to 3% target since late 2021 and the jobless rate
easing to 4%, an early rate reduction seems unlikely.
A near 90% majority, 38 of 43, predicted interest rates to
remain unchanged next quarter, followed by a 25 basis point cut
to 4.10% in the final quarter of this year.
Australian rates markets are even more hawkish - traders are
pricing in only 15 basis points of easing this year, and barely
50 bps in total by the end of 2025. Excluding the Bank of Japan,
which is in the early stages of tightening policy, that's among
the most hawkish pricing for any G10 central bank.
In China, meanwhile, stocks are at a two-month low and the yuan
is its weakest this year after a weak batch of data on Monday -
especially house prices - did little to lift the economic gloom.
Trade tensions are intensifying too. China has opened an
anti-dumping investigation into imported pork and its
by-products from the European Union, a tit-for-tat response to
curbs on its electric vehicle exports.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, meanwhile, has trimmed its
stake in China's BYD, the world's largest seller of electric
vehicles. The change in stake is tiny, but potentially symbolic
of foreigners' angst at the brewing trade wars.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Tuesday:
- Australia interest rate decision
- Singapore non-oil trade (May)
- Fed's Barkin, Collins, Kugler, Musalem, Logan, Goolsbee
speak