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MORNING BID ASIA-Dollar recoils at 160 yen, Tesla's China joy
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MORNING BID ASIA-Dollar recoils at 160 yen, Tesla's China joy
Apr 29, 2024 3:04 PM

April 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian FX traders will be on heightened Japanese intervention

alert again on Tuesday after Tokyo reportedly stepped into the

market on Monday, catapulting the yen up from a 34-year low of

160 per dollar and onto a roller-coaster ride of volatility.

It was the dollar's breach of 160 yen that appears to have

snapped the Ministry of Finance's patience. The yen's rebound

was perhaps exaggerated because Japan was closed for a public

holiday on Monday - the dollar fell as low as 154.50 yen - so

market liquidity will return to more normal levels on Tuesday.

Chinese stocks have opened the week strongly, hitting a

six-month high as property sector sentiment improves, and Tesla

shares' 15% surge on Monday following Elon Musk's visit to

Beijing can only be supportive of Chinese markets and tech more

broadly.

A pullback in U.S. bond yields - 5.00% on the two-year yield

once again proving to be a firm ceiling - will also help cement

the upbeat backdrop to the market open in Asia on Tuesday.

The regional economic data and events calendar is

overflowing with potential market-moving releases, included

among them: Chinese PMIs, Japanese retail sales, unemployment

and industrial production, Bank of Korea meeting minutes and

Australian retail sales.

The currencies of all these countries will be sensitive to

these releases, particularly in light of the yen's

roller-coaster ride and Japan's reported yen-buying intervention

on Monday.

The yen ended up strengthening 1.5% against the dollar on

Monday, its biggest one-day rise this year, but that barely

clawed back the ground lost in its 1.6% slump on Friday, the day

of the Bank of Japan's policy announcement.

Indeed, at around 156.00 per dollar, the yen goes into Asian

trading on Tuesday slightly weaker than it was before the BOJ's

decision. If Tokyo did intervene, it has clearly managed to

relieve the selling pressure on the yen, but how long that lasts

remains to be seen.

The last time Japan intervened in the FX market was October

2022, when it spent around $40 billion to buy yen when the

currency was around 152.00 per dollar. It took more than a year

for the yen to get back to that level, and a further five months

to break it.

The current economic climate and market conditions are

different of course, and perhaps Japan's resolve is stronger now

than it was then.

Comments from Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda,

were pretty pointed: "The developments we're seeing now ... can

be described as speculative, rapid and abnormal volatility. The

damage such moves inflicts on the economy is hard to overlook."

One suspects yen bears will be looking over their shoulders

quite a bit in the coming days.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Tuesday:

- China manufacturing and services PMIs (April)

- Japan retail sales, unemployment, industrial output

(March)

- Bank of Korea meeting minutes

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