April 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asian FX traders will be on heightened Japanese intervention
alert again on Tuesday after Tokyo reportedly stepped into the
market on Monday, catapulting the yen up from a 34-year low of
160 per dollar and onto a roller-coaster ride of volatility.
It was the dollar's breach of 160 yen that appears to have
snapped the Ministry of Finance's patience. The yen's rebound
was perhaps exaggerated because Japan was closed for a public
holiday on Monday - the dollar fell as low as 154.50 yen - so
market liquidity will return to more normal levels on Tuesday.
Chinese stocks have opened the week strongly, hitting a
six-month high as property sector sentiment improves, and Tesla
shares' 15% surge on Monday following Elon Musk's visit to
Beijing can only be supportive of Chinese markets and tech more
broadly.
A pullback in U.S. bond yields - 5.00% on the two-year yield
once again proving to be a firm ceiling - will also help cement
the upbeat backdrop to the market open in Asia on Tuesday.
The regional economic data and events calendar is
overflowing with potential market-moving releases, included
among them: Chinese PMIs, Japanese retail sales, unemployment
and industrial production, Bank of Korea meeting minutes and
Australian retail sales.
The currencies of all these countries will be sensitive to
these releases, particularly in light of the yen's
roller-coaster ride and Japan's reported yen-buying intervention
on Monday.
The yen ended up strengthening 1.5% against the dollar on
Monday, its biggest one-day rise this year, but that barely
clawed back the ground lost in its 1.6% slump on Friday, the day
of the Bank of Japan's policy announcement.
Indeed, at around 156.00 per dollar, the yen goes into Asian
trading on Tuesday slightly weaker than it was before the BOJ's
decision. If Tokyo did intervene, it has clearly managed to
relieve the selling pressure on the yen, but how long that lasts
remains to be seen.
The last time Japan intervened in the FX market was October
2022, when it spent around $40 billion to buy yen when the
currency was around 152.00 per dollar. It took more than a year
for the yen to get back to that level, and a further five months
to break it.
The current economic climate and market conditions are
different of course, and perhaps Japan's resolve is stronger now
than it was then.
Comments from Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda,
were pretty pointed: "The developments we're seeing now ... can
be described as speculative, rapid and abnormal volatility. The
damage such moves inflicts on the economy is hard to overlook."
One suspects yen bears will be looking over their shoulders
quite a bit in the coming days.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Tuesday:
- China manufacturing and services PMIs (April)
- Japan retail sales, unemployment, industrial output
(March)
- Bank of Korea meeting minutes