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MORNING BID ASIA-EM conditions tighten, outflows heighten
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MORNING BID ASIA-EM conditions tighten, outflows heighten
Nov 17, 2024 5:44 PM

Nov 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian markets could be in for a rocky ride on Monday, as rising

U.S. bond yields, a surging dollar and a wobble on Wall Street

on Friday call into question the wisdom of buying local assets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on Thursday - that the

central bank is in no rush to lower interest rates - continue to

reverberate around world markets.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on Friday hit 4.50% for the

first time in over five months, and Wall Street fell. The Nasdaq

lost more than 2% and has fallen four days in a row - the last

time it did that was in April.

The MSCI World equity index has also fallen four days in a

row, its longest losing streak since the first week of

September, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index lost 4.35%, its

biggest weekly decline since June, 2022.

If that wasn't enough for emerging market investors, they

are having to grapple with an extraordinary rally in the U.S.

dollar.

The dollar index last week leapt 1.6%, hit its highest in

over a year, and recorded a seventh weekly rise in a row. It is

no doubt due for a correction, but momentum is strong and it

looks like it will take some bravery and conviction to stand in

its way right now.

Goldman Sachs's emerging market financial conditions index

last week spiked to a three and a half month high.

Against that potent mix of strong U.S. economic data, yields

and dollar, it's no surprise emerging markets are struggling.

Citing EPFR Global data, strategists at Barclays note that

emerging market funds have now posted outflows five weeks in a

row, with bond fund outflows particularly strong.

Asia's calendar on Monday is fairly light, with the main

highlights likely to be New Zealand producer prices, Singapore

non-oil trade figures, Japanese machinery orders, earnings from

Mitsubishi UFJ, and GDP data from Thailand.

Economists polled by Reuters expect Thailand's growth

accelerated to a 2.6% annual rate from 2.3% in the April-June

period. That would be the fastest pace of growth in

one-and-a-half years.

The Thai baht has been one of the better-performing Asian

currencies against the dollar this year, down only 1.3%

year-to-date, and markets are expecting less than 50 basis

points of Bank of Thailand easing by the end of next year.

Strained U.S.-Sino relations remain in the spotlight, after

China's President Xi Jinping told his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden

that the issues of Taiwan, democracy, human rights and rights to

development are "red lines" for China and not to be challenged.

But Xi also said China is ready to work with the new U.S.

administration to "maintain communication, expand cooperation

and manage differences."

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- Thailand GDP (Q3)

- Japan machinery orders (September)

- G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro begins

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