Nov 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asian markets could be in for a rocky ride on Monday, as rising
U.S. bond yields, a surging dollar and a wobble on Wall Street
on Friday call into question the wisdom of buying local assets.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on Thursday - that the
central bank is in no rush to lower interest rates - continue to
reverberate around world markets.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on Friday hit 4.50% for the
first time in over five months, and Wall Street fell. The Nasdaq
lost more than 2% and has fallen four days in a row - the last
time it did that was in April.
The MSCI World equity index has also fallen four days in a
row, its longest losing streak since the first week of
September, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index lost 4.35%, its
biggest weekly decline since June, 2022.
If that wasn't enough for emerging market investors, they
are having to grapple with an extraordinary rally in the U.S.
dollar.
The dollar index last week leapt 1.6%, hit its highest in
over a year, and recorded a seventh weekly rise in a row. It is
no doubt due for a correction, but momentum is strong and it
looks like it will take some bravery and conviction to stand in
its way right now.
Goldman Sachs's emerging market financial conditions index
last week spiked to a three and a half month high.
Against that potent mix of strong U.S. economic data, yields
and dollar, it's no surprise emerging markets are struggling.
Citing EPFR Global data, strategists at Barclays note that
emerging market funds have now posted outflows five weeks in a
row, with bond fund outflows particularly strong.
Asia's calendar on Monday is fairly light, with the main
highlights likely to be New Zealand producer prices, Singapore
non-oil trade figures, Japanese machinery orders, earnings from
Mitsubishi UFJ, and GDP data from Thailand.
Economists polled by Reuters expect Thailand's growth
accelerated to a 2.6% annual rate from 2.3% in the April-June
period. That would be the fastest pace of growth in
one-and-a-half years.
The Thai baht has been one of the better-performing Asian
currencies against the dollar this year, down only 1.3%
year-to-date, and markets are expecting less than 50 basis
points of Bank of Thailand easing by the end of next year.
Strained U.S.-Sino relations remain in the spotlight, after
China's President Xi Jinping told his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden
that the issues of Taiwan, democracy, human rights and rights to
development are "red lines" for China and not to be challenged.
But Xi also said China is ready to work with the new U.S.
administration to "maintain communication, expand cooperation
and manage differences."
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Monday:
- Thailand GDP (Q3)
- Japan machinery orders (September)
- G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro begins