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MORNING BID ASIA-Fed comments puncture mood, India gives rate steer
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MORNING BID ASIA-Fed comments puncture mood, India gives rate steer
Apr 4, 2024 3:09 PM

April 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

A late and steep reversal on Wall Street on Thursday, sparked by

comments from a U.S. Fed official that interest rates may not be

cut this year, appears to be souring the mood across Asia on

Friday, despite a decline in the dollar and U.S. bond yields.

The S&P 500 had been well in the green for most of Thursday

but ended up clocking its biggest loss in nearly two months

after Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari's remarks.

Asian stocks, however, have been pretty resilient lately.

They may have lagged benchmark U.S., Japanese and world indices

on the upside this year, but it's been two months since the MSCI

Asia ex-Japan index last fell three days in a row.

Geopolitics may also be weighing on stocks and supporting

bonds. President Joe Biden on Thursday threatened to change

Washington's policy towards Israel if it fails to protect aid

workers and civilians in Gaza.

There are several potentially market-moving events in

Friday's regional calendar, including inflation data from the

Philippines and Thailand, Australian trade, Japanese household

consumption, and the Reserve Bank of India's policy meeting.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is also in China for a

series of meetings with top Chinese economic officials over the

coming days, with trade tensions at the heart of them.

Yellen is expected to say that the flood of Chinese goods

onto global markets is too much for the world to absorb, and

stress that this is unhealthy for China too. It remains to be

seen how receptive Beijing is to her concerns.

China's exchange rate continues to attract attention.

Offshore dollar/yuan has traded above the upper limit of the

central bank's daily band for 10 days, while onshore dollar/yuan

is creeping up towards it.

The gap that widened sharply 10 days ago is narrowing, but

is still noticeable.

An eerie calm has descended on the yen, with traders still

on Japanese intervention alert.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that the central

bank could raise rates again if exchange-rate moves push up

inflation, the Asahi newspaper reported.

The main calendar event in Asia on Friday is the Reserve

Bank of India's policy decision. All 56 economists in a Reuters

poll expect the repo rate to be kept unchanged at 6.50%.

There is less consensus on when the first cut will come,

with nine of 52 saying next quarter, 24 picking the third

quarter, 17 saying the fourth quarter and the rest expecting it

at a later time. .

Meanwhile Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, confident of

winning a national election starting this month, has set an

ambitious target of roughly doubling the economy and exports

this decade, according to a government document seen by Reuters.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Friday:

- India central bank policy meeting

- Thailand inflation (March)

- The Philippines inflation (March)

(By Jamie McGeever;)

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