April 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
A late and steep reversal on Wall Street on Thursday, sparked by
comments from a U.S. Fed official that interest rates may not be
cut this year, appears to be souring the mood across Asia on
Friday, despite a decline in the dollar and U.S. bond yields.
The S&P 500 had been well in the green for most of Thursday
but ended up clocking its biggest loss in nearly two months
after Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari's remarks.
Asian stocks, however, have been pretty resilient lately.
They may have lagged benchmark U.S., Japanese and world indices
on the upside this year, but it's been two months since the MSCI
Asia ex-Japan index last fell three days in a row.
Geopolitics may also be weighing on stocks and supporting
bonds. President Joe Biden on Thursday threatened to change
Washington's policy towards Israel if it fails to protect aid
workers and civilians in Gaza.
There are several potentially market-moving events in
Friday's regional calendar, including inflation data from the
Philippines and Thailand, Australian trade, Japanese household
consumption, and the Reserve Bank of India's policy meeting.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is also in China for a
series of meetings with top Chinese economic officials over the
coming days, with trade tensions at the heart of them.
Yellen is expected to say that the flood of Chinese goods
onto global markets is too much for the world to absorb, and
stress that this is unhealthy for China too. It remains to be
seen how receptive Beijing is to her concerns.
China's exchange rate continues to attract attention.
Offshore dollar/yuan has traded above the upper limit of the
central bank's daily band for 10 days, while onshore dollar/yuan
is creeping up towards it.
The gap that widened sharply 10 days ago is narrowing, but
is still noticeable.
An eerie calm has descended on the yen, with traders still
on Japanese intervention alert.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that the central
bank could raise rates again if exchange-rate moves push up
inflation, the Asahi newspaper reported.
The main calendar event in Asia on Friday is the Reserve
Bank of India's policy decision. All 56 economists in a Reuters
poll expect the repo rate to be kept unchanged at 6.50%.
There is less consensus on when the first cut will come,
with nine of 52 saying next quarter, 24 picking the third
quarter, 17 saying the fourth quarter and the rest expecting it
at a later time. .
Meanwhile Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, confident of
winning a national election starting this month, has set an
ambitious target of roughly doubling the economy and exports
this decade, according to a government document seen by Reuters.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Friday:
- India central bank policy meeting
- Thailand inflation (March)
- The Philippines inflation (March)
(By Jamie McGeever;)