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MORNING BID ASIA-Fed goes big, markets yo-yo
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MORNING BID ASIA-Fed goes big, markets yo-yo
Sep 21, 2024 7:33 AM

Sept 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

"Go big, and go bold," was the advice to Fed Chair Jerome Powell

and colleagues from some U.S. policy watchers and even former

policymakers, and didn't they do just that.

The Federal Reserve's half percentage point interest rate

cut on Wednesday was a statement of intent that the Fed stands

ready to protect the labor market and steer the economy away

from anything approaching recession.

Investors liked it, at first. The S&P 500, Dow and gold all

leaped to fresh record highs, the Russell 200 small caps index

rallied nearly 2%, and the dollar fell across the board.

But stocks' and gold's gains melted away and the dollar

bounced back from a 14-month low to close the U.S. session up on

the day.

What gives? Maybe the bond market reaction was most

prescient. Treasury yields rose across the curve, more so at the

longer end, perhaps on underlying worries over inflation and

easier financial conditions, or because the Fed slightly revised

up its long-run forecast for the fed funds rate.

This sends mixed signals for Asian markets on Thursday.

Who says central banks no longer retain the element of

surprise? Bank Indonesia's quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday

was not on the cards - only three of the 33 economists polled by

Reuters predicted the move, with the remaining 30 expecting the

policy rate to be left at 6.25%.

Perhaps surprisingly, the rupiah didn't move much and stuck

close to its strongest levels against the dollar in about a

year.

Now that the Fed has taken its first step on its easing path

also, other central banks in Asia are likely to feel more

comfortable loosening policy. But not Taiwan, not yet at least.

Taiwan's central bank is expected to keep its policy

interest rate unchanged on Thursday, according to all 32

economists surveyed in a Reuters poll, and stay the course until

late next year as it deals with lingering inflation concerns.

The central bank left the benchmark discount rate at 2% as

expected at its last quarterly meeting in June, having hiked it

to that level from 1.875% at the prior meeting in March.

Investors in Asia also have New Zealand GDP, unemployment

figures from Australia and Hong Kong, and trade data from

Malaysia on their plate on Thursday.

Traders may also be adjusting positions ahead of Japanese

inflation figures and rate decisions on Friday from the Bank of

Japan and People's Bank of China.

The dark cloud of deflation hangs heavily over China,

especially the property sector. Previous housing market crashes

around the world suggest it could take China a decade to recover

from the bubble currently bursting. And that's if prices even

get back to their pre-bubble peaks.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Thursday:

- Taiwan interest rate decision

- New Zealand GDP (Q2)

- Australia unemployment (August)

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