Dec 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
The Federal Reserve has spoken, and as far as investors are
concerned, the message was clear - clearly hawkish. Now it's
over to the Bank of Japan and Bank of England, the two biggest
and most important of the clutch of central bank policy
decisions on Thursday.
This recent burst of central bank meetings reaches its
crescendo with decisions on Thursday also coming from Norway and
Sweden, and more importantly from an Asian perspective, Taiwan
and the Philippines.
Investors in Asia go into Thursday on the defensive after
the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as
expected, but signaled a slower pace of easing ahead.
Fed officials raised their median projection of where they
see the long run neutral rate, significantly raised their 2025
inflation outlook, and continued to sketch out a path of further
rate cuts next year.
Higher inflation coupled with continued easing is a circle
Fed Chair Jerome Powell struggled to square in his press
conference. And as he spoke with reporters, the selloff in
stocks and Treasuries accelerated and the dollar soared even
higher.
Wall Street ended the day sharply lower. The Nasdaq slumped
more than 3%, the Dow fell for a tenth day - its longest losing
streak in 50 years - the dollar jumped to a two-year high and
bond yields rose across the curve.
As Janus Henderson's ( JHG ) Dan Siluk noted, there is potential for
an "extended pause" next year, and the Fed is indicating that
"we are in a structurally higher inflation and rates
environment."
Emerging market assets will almost certainly come under
heavy pressure on Thursday.
All eyes in Asia now turn to Tokyo. The BOJ is expected to
keep interest rates on hold, leaving investors to take their cue
from Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks in his press conference.
Japanese swap rates imply a 60% probability the BOJ will
raise rates by 25 bps in January, down from around 70% a couple
of weeks ago. A quarter-point hike is not fully priced until
May, and only 45 bps of tightening in total is expected by
December, the swaps curve shows.
The Philippine central bank is expected to cut its key
policy rate by a quarter point to 5.75%, according to a Reuters
poll, with inflation under control and the economy weakening.
Despite inflation rising for a second month in November to
2.5%, it is well within the central bank's 2%-4% target. This
would be its third cut in a row, and economists expect a further
three reductions next year.
Policymakers in Taiwan, meanwhile, are expected to keep the
key policy rate unchanged at 2% and hold it there throughout
next year given the strong economy and inflation concerns.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Thursday:
- Japan interest rate decision
- Philippines interest rate decision
- Taiwan interest rate decision