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MORNING BID ASIA-Fed's 'hawkish cut' slams markets, BOJ up next
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MORNING BID ASIA-Fed's 'hawkish cut' slams markets, BOJ up next
Dec 18, 2024 2:11 PM

Dec 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

The Federal Reserve has spoken, and as far as investors are

concerned, the message was clear - clearly hawkish. Now it's

over to the Bank of Japan and Bank of England, the two biggest

and most important of the clutch of central bank policy

decisions on Thursday.

This recent burst of central bank meetings reaches its

crescendo with decisions on Thursday also coming from Norway and

Sweden, and more importantly from an Asian perspective, Taiwan

and the Philippines.

Investors in Asia go into Thursday on the defensive after

the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as

expected, but signaled a slower pace of easing ahead.

Fed officials raised their median projection of where they

see the long run neutral rate, significantly raised their 2025

inflation outlook, and continued to sketch out a path of further

rate cuts next year.

Higher inflation coupled with continued easing is a circle

Fed Chair Jerome Powell struggled to square in his press

conference. And as he spoke with reporters, the selloff in

stocks and Treasuries accelerated and the dollar soared even

higher.

Wall Street ended the day sharply lower. The Nasdaq slumped

more than 3%, the Dow fell for a tenth day - its longest losing

streak in 50 years - the dollar jumped to a two-year high and

bond yields rose across the curve.

As Janus Henderson's ( JHG ) Dan Siluk noted, there is potential for

an "extended pause" next year, and the Fed is indicating that

"we are in a structurally higher inflation and rates

environment."

Emerging market assets will almost certainly come under

heavy pressure on Thursday.

All eyes in Asia now turn to Tokyo. The BOJ is expected to

keep interest rates on hold, leaving investors to take their cue

from Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks in his press conference.

Japanese swap rates imply a 60% probability the BOJ will

raise rates by 25 bps in January, down from around 70% a couple

of weeks ago. A quarter-point hike is not fully priced until

May, and only 45 bps of tightening in total is expected by

December, the swaps curve shows.

The Philippine central bank is expected to cut its key

policy rate by a quarter point to 5.75%, according to a Reuters

poll, with inflation under control and the economy weakening.

Despite inflation rising for a second month in November to

2.5%, it is well within the central bank's 2%-4% target. This

would be its third cut in a row, and economists expect a further

three reductions next year.

Policymakers in Taiwan, meanwhile, are expected to keep the

key policy rate unchanged at 2% and hold it there throughout

next year given the strong economy and inflation concerns.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Thursday:

- Japan interest rate decision

- Philippines interest rate decision

- Taiwan interest rate decision

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