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MORNING BID ASIA-Fragile FX, tech swoon cloud sentiment
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MORNING BID ASIA-Fragile FX, tech swoon cloud sentiment
Apr 21, 2024 3:21 PM

April 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian markets on Monday will be hoping to bounce back from one

of the most bruising weeks this year, but that won't be easy

given the hawkish tone of recent Fed comments, heightened Middle

East tensions and deepening weakness in tech stocks.

Wall Street fell sharply on Friday with the S&P 500 sealing

its longest losing streak since October 2022 and tech darling

Nvidia's 10% plunge dragging down the Nasdaq, while demand for

safe-haven Treasuries, gold and the Swiss franc rose.

While there was no escalation in the Iran-Israel

conflagration over the weekend, investors are cautious.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan equity index fell 3.7% last week to a

two-month low. That was the biggest weekly decline since August,

with rising U.S. bond yields, a strong dollar and wobbly global

stock markets taking their toll.

Investors are still digesting the IMF/World Bank Spring

meetings and related conferences and events from last week, from

which one of the clearest messages was how concerned officials

are becoming with the strength of the dollar.

The United States, Japan and South Korea issued a joint

statement on the issue, ECB rate-setter Robert Holzmann said the

ECB probably won't cut rates this year as much as planned if the

Fed doesn't move, and the IMF urged Asian central banks to focus

on domestic inflation rather than following the Fed too closely.

Indonesia's central bank on Friday intervened in the FX market

"more boldly to maintain market confidence" as the rupiah

weakened, while India's rupee was lifted from a record low on

Friday by likely intervention from the central bank.

South Korea's central bank chief, meanwhile, said the bank is

ready to take steps to stabilize the exchange rate if needed.

Attention remains fixed on Asia's most liquid FX market and

whether, with the dollar hovering at 34-year peaks near 155.00

yen, Japanese authorities will back up recent warnings against

the yen's depreciation with intervention.

So far, it has been just talk from Tokyo.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said in Washington on Friday

that the central bank will "very likely" be raising interest

rates if underlying inflation continued to go up.

The latest positioning data from U.S. futures markets showed

hedge funds and speculators increased their aggregate net short

yen position in the latest week to a new 17-year high.

Monday's economic calendar sees the release of Indonesian

trade figures and Taiwan's unemployment rate, while the People's

Bank of China is expected to leave its one-year and five-year

loan prime rates on hold at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively.

Chinese markets will get their first chance to react to new

measures announced on Friday aimed at promoting overseas

investment in its technology sector.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- China interest rate decision

- Indonesia trade (March)

- Taiwan unemployment (March)

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