Jan 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
At last, some breathing room for investors after U.S. and UK
inflation figures on Wednesday eased the vice-like grip that the
soaring dollar and global bond yields had increasingly been
exerting over markets.
It is too early to say this marks a turning point, but fixed
income and emerging markets have been beaten down so much lately
that they were primed for a 'good news' reversal. Upbeat U.S.
bank earnings and, on the margins, the ceasefire between Israel
and Hamas will also help support market sentiment on Thursday.
But it's the UK and especially the U.S. inflation news that will
drive markets more, and the rapid slide in bond yields and jump
in stocks should pave the way for a positive day in Asia on
Thursday.
These numbers may not ultimately alter the Fed's direction
or even pace of rate cuts this year. But they do take the heat
off policymakers and buy them more time to assess their next
steps.
For investors, they were instant triggers to reverse some of
the bond selling that had snowballed in recent weeks and which
had started to bleed into equity markets. Yields across the U.S.
Treasury curve posted their biggest one-day declines since Nov.
25, and rates traders brought forward the next expected Fed rate
cut to June from September.
Curiously, however, the impact on the dollar was muted. It
fell sharply against the yen, but barely budged against the
euro. Perhaps country-specific factors are playing a greater
role in setting exchange rates right now rather than solely U.S.
yields and rate expectations.
That may be the case in Asia, where policy and politics are
spicing up local markets. Indonesia's rupiah sank to its lowest
in more than six months and the country's stocks leaped on
Wednesday after the central bank delivered a surprise rate cut.
Not one of the 30 analysts polled by Reuters expected the
move.
The Bank of Korea delivers its latest decision on Thursday,
and it could not be at a more volatile time for the country,
after impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested on
Wednesday and questioned for hours by investigators in relation
to a criminal insurrection probe.
The BoK is expected to cut its base rate by 25 basis points
to 2.75%, according to 27 out of 34 economists polled by
Reuters, with the remaining seven forecasting no change.
Given the tense domestic political situation and in light of
the cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data, could the BoK
surprise markets with a 50 bps cut to try and boost growth and
loosen financial conditions?
Bank Indonesia's shock move shows that even unanimous
consensus forecasts are not always the one-way bet they might
seem.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Thursday:
- South Korea interest rate decision
- South Korea fallout from President Yoon's arrest
- Australia unemployment (December)