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MORNING BID ASIA-Global inflation relief lifts bond yield gloom
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MORNING BID ASIA-Global inflation relief lifts bond yield gloom
Jan 15, 2025 2:09 PM

Jan 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

At last, some breathing room for investors after U.S. and UK

inflation figures on Wednesday eased the vice-like grip that the

soaring dollar and global bond yields had increasingly been

exerting over markets.

It is too early to say this marks a turning point, but fixed

income and emerging markets have been beaten down so much lately

that they were primed for a 'good news' reversal. Upbeat U.S.

bank earnings and, on the margins, the ceasefire between Israel

and Hamas will also help support market sentiment on Thursday.

But it's the UK and especially the U.S. inflation news that will

drive markets more, and the rapid slide in bond yields and jump

in stocks should pave the way for a positive day in Asia on

Thursday.

These numbers may not ultimately alter the Fed's direction

or even pace of rate cuts this year. But they do take the heat

off policymakers and buy them more time to assess their next

steps.

For investors, they were instant triggers to reverse some of

the bond selling that had snowballed in recent weeks and which

had started to bleed into equity markets. Yields across the U.S.

Treasury curve posted their biggest one-day declines since Nov.

25, and rates traders brought forward the next expected Fed rate

cut to June from September.

Curiously, however, the impact on the dollar was muted. It

fell sharply against the yen, but barely budged against the

euro. Perhaps country-specific factors are playing a greater

role in setting exchange rates right now rather than solely U.S.

yields and rate expectations.

That may be the case in Asia, where policy and politics are

spicing up local markets. Indonesia's rupiah sank to its lowest

in more than six months and the country's stocks leaped on

Wednesday after the central bank delivered a surprise rate cut.

Not one of the 30 analysts polled by Reuters expected the

move.

The Bank of Korea delivers its latest decision on Thursday,

and it could not be at a more volatile time for the country,

after impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested on

Wednesday and questioned for hours by investigators in relation

to a criminal insurrection probe.

The BoK is expected to cut its base rate by 25 basis points

to 2.75%, according to 27 out of 34 economists polled by

Reuters, with the remaining seven forecasting no change.

Given the tense domestic political situation and in light of

the cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data, could the BoK

surprise markets with a 50 bps cut to try and boost growth and

loosen financial conditions?

Bank Indonesia's shock move shows that even unanimous

consensus forecasts are not always the one-way bet they might

seem.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Thursday:

- South Korea interest rate decision

- South Korea fallout from President Yoon's arrest

- Australia unemployment (December)

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