Jan 10 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Investors in Asia approach the end of a bumpy week hoping that
the relative calm that descended on the dollar and a shortened
U.S. bond market session on Thursday can extend into the local
session on Friday.
With the December U.S. employment report looming large and
markets still feeling the whiplash from the surge in global
long-term bond yields this week, trading in Asia may end up
fairly range-bound and subdued.
Nikkei futures are pointing to a flat open for Japanese
stocks. The Nikkei is on track for a decline of around 0.7% on
the week, underperforming the wider MSCI Asia ex-Japan index,
which goes into Friday's session flat on the week.
Chinese stocks are also looking to end the week unchanged
and unscathed. That can be interpreted two ways, however. It's
welcome news, given the doom and gloom that continues to
surround the outlook for China in the eyes of many investors.
On the other hand, Chinese stocks tumbled more than 5% the
week before, their worst week in more than two years. In that
light, failure to stage even a modest rebound the following week
is a pretty ominous sign.
It's been a difficult start to the year for China bulls.
Stocks are significantly lagging their regional and global
peers, the bond yield collapse has been alarming, and
uncertainty around a possible trade war with the U.S. is cutting
deep.
According to Goldman Sachs ( GS ), financial conditions in China
are the tightest since last April. Across emerging markets more
broadly they are the tightest since November 2023.
China's latest inflation figures on Thursday weren't
particularly encouraging either. Consumer and producer prices
for December were broadly in line with forecasts, cementing the
view that deflationary pressures are not lifting any time soon.
Economists at Barclays slashed their already weak 2025 CPI
forecast to 0.4% from 0.8%, and they expect PPI inflation to
remain in deflation throughout 2025. That would mark more than
three years of falling factory gate prices.
And it could get even worse if the incoming Trump
administration in Washington follows through with its aggressive
tariff threats.
"We think a new trade war between China and the US would, on
balance, have a deflationary effect, given downward pressure on
exports would exacerbate the overcapacity issues in China," they
warned.
The regional calendar is light on Friday, with the latest
Japanese household spending figures most likely to move markets.
Investors will be looking for early signs that recent wage
agreements in Japan - the highest in decades - are beginning to
lift consumer spending.
The Bank of Japan said on Thursday that wage hikes are
broadening across the country, suggesting that conditions for a
near-term interest rate hike may be in place.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Friday:
- Japan's household consumption (November)
- India industrial production (November)
- Malaysia industrial production (November)