May 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
A remarkably light economic data and events calendar in Asia on
Thursday will allow investors to chew over the rise in U.S. and
global bond yields that appears to be gathering pace,
strengthening the dollar and tightening financial conditions.
Unsurprisingly, risk appetite is suffering.
The MSCI World equity index fell 1% on Wednesday and the MSCI
Asia ex-Japan index slumped 1.6%, its biggest fall in six weeks.
Hopes of a rebound on Thursday will have been tempered by Wall
Street's slide deep into the red too.
Thursday's regional calendar offers few major market-moving
signals. Reserve Bank of Australia's deputy governor Sarah
Hunter is scheduled to speak, Australian home building approvals
data will be released and Taiwan revises first quarter GDP.
Friday's calendar, by contrast, is packed with top-tier
releases including Chinese PMIs, Tokyo inflation and India's Q4
GDP, all of which precedes the main event of the week - U.S. PCE
inflation for April.
Investors have to navigate Thursday first though, and market
waters are getting increasingly choppy.
The 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield is now at 1.075%,
the highest since late 2011 and up eight days out of the last
nine.
But these juicier yields aren't doing much for the yen, which is
sliding closer to 158.00 per dollar, where Japanese authorities
are suspected to have intervened on May 1 selling dollars to
support the domestic currency.
Global yields, already significantly higher than Japan's,
are also rising. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped another
seven basis points on Wednesday to 4.64%, the highest in a
month, and the two-year yield briefly topped 5.00% again.
U.S. yield spreads over other jurisdictions may not be
widening much in the dollar's favor, but they are staying wide
enough to ensure the dollar remains investors' currency of
choice.
The dollar index rose 0.5% on Wednesday, its biggest rise in
a month.
China bulls
, meanwhile, might have been encouraged by the International
Monetary Fund's assessment on Wednesday of Asia's largest
economy. The IMF upgraded its 2024 and 2025 GDP growth outlooks
by 0.4 percentage points to 5% and 4.5%, respectively.
But the IMF was more cautious on the longer term outlook,
warning that growth could slow to 3.3% by 2029 due to an aging
population and slower expansion in productivity.
More immediately, the economy's strong performance in Q1
might have set the bar of expectations too high - China's
economic surprises index continues to fall and is now on the
brink of turning negative.
If China's economic surprises index is grinding lower,
however, Japan's has fallen off a cliff. At the start of May it
was +35.2, and on Wednesday it was -36.8, the lowest since
January last year.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Thursday:
- RBA deputy governor Sarah Hunter speaks
- Australia home building approvals (April)
- Taiwan GDP (Q1, revised estimate)