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MORNING BID ASIA-Guarding against disinflation complacency
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MORNING BID ASIA-Guarding against disinflation complacency
Jun 18, 2024 3:08 PM

June 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Investors are no doubt relieved that disinflationary

pressures seem to be spreading across many parts of the world,

but there were a few warnings on Tuesday against complacency

that they might keep in mind going into Wednesday.

Australia's central bank struck a hawkish tone in its policy

statement, some U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed similar

wariness over inflation, and global oil prices extended their

recent climb to the highest in seven weeks.

That wasn't enough to kill the general bullishness pervading

world markets - Asian stocks posted solid gains, Nvidia became

the world's most valuable publicly-traded company and the S&P

500 and Nasdaq hit new highs - but it's a reminder that markets

are not a one-way bet.

Momentum cooled also in part to disappointing U.S. retail sales

figures that suggest growth in the world's largest economy is

slowing - the dollar and Wall Street barely budged, and Treasury

yields fell.

Asian markets might struggle for direction on Wednesday.

Trade figures from Japan and Indonesia, current account data

from New Zealand, and Japan's tankan business surveys are

highlights on the regional economic calendar.

The New Zealand dollar could take its cue from the Reserve

Bank of New Zealand's chief economist Paul Conway, who will

deliver a speech on inflation.

Swaps markets are pricing in 35 basis points of easing from

the RBNZ this year and a further 90 bps to 100 bps next year.

That's significantly more than the Reserve Bank of Australia,

which is only seen cutting rates 50 bps by the end of next year.

The Aussie dollar was one of the best-performing G10

currencies on Tuesday after the RBA left its cash rate on hold

at 4.35%, as expected, but emphasized the need to be vigilant on

inflation.

Japan's yen finds back in and around the 'intervention zone'

of 158.00 per dollar to 160.00 per dollar, where Tokyo

intervened on two occasions recently to prevent it from

weakening any further.

The Bank of Japan will be more wary than most about the

inflationary effects of the weak exchange rate and oil, which is

up more than 10% in the last two weeks.

Japanese lender Norinchukin Bank, meanwhile, will sell more

than $63 billion of its holdings of U.S. and European government

bonds during the year ending March 2025, Nikkei reported.

Norinchukin will do this as part of the bank's efforts to

"drastically change its portfolio management," Nikkei quoted the

bank's CEO as saying.

It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, this has

on the bonds being sold and the yen. Japan is the biggest

overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries and the largest creditor

nation in the world - repatriating a small part of these

holdings could move world markets.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Wednesday:

- Japan trade (May)

- Japan tankan surveys (June)

- RBNZ's Conway speaks

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