July 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
The global tech selloff spread across equity markets more
broadly on Thursday, setting the tone for a choppy session in
Asia on Friday as investors try and get to the end of a volatile
week without incurring any more pain.
Japanese inflation will be the main local focus. These
figures will go a long way to determining what the Bank of Japan
does at its July 30-31 policy meeting - keep interest rates on
hold, or hike another 10 basis points?
The MSCI World, Asia ex-Japan, and emerging market indices
are on course for their biggest weekly losses in eight weeks,
while Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index is set for its biggest
weekly fall since April.
Tech has been bruised more severely, with a report that the
United States is considering tighter curbs on exports of
advanced chip technology to China weighing heavily on the
sector.
Netflix on Thursday reported a stronger-than-expected rise
in subscribers in the second quarter but cautioned that
third-quarter gains would be lower than the same period in 2023.
Its shares fell in after-hours trading.
This comes a day after Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest
contract chipmaker, raised its full-year revenue forecast on
surging artificial intelligence related demand for chips. Its
shares still lost over 2% for a second straight day.
In China, investors are likely to be deeply underwhelmed by
the outcome of the Communist Party's Central Committee meeting,
known as a plenum, which they were watching for signs of
much-needed stimulus to revive the struggling economy.
Chinese leaders reiterated their wide-ranging economic
policy goals - modernizing industry, expanding domestic demand
and curbing debt and property sector risks. But detail on how
this will be implemented was very thin on the ground.
The focus switches to Japanese inflation. Economists polled
by Reuters reckon core inflation picked up in June to a 2.7%
annual rate from 2.5% in May. That would mean inflation has been
above the central bank's 2% target for 27 months in a row.
Officials are worried that inflation is being powered by
external factors rather than the domestic demand policymakers
are trying to encourage.
But strong wage hikes have yet to be felt. Nearly 90% of
Japanese households - the most in 16 years - expect prices to
rise a year from now, according to surveys published last week.
More economists now reckon the BOJ will raise rates later
this month by 10 basis points to 0.20%. This would follow its
landmark move in March, when it raised rates for the first time
in 17 years.
Japanese money markets are split fairly evenly between a
hike or hold. Friday's data could tip the balance one way or the
other.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Friday:
- Japan CPI inflation (June)
- Malaysia GDP (Q2)
- Philippine central bank governor Eli Remolona speaks