Feb 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Investors are anticipating India's first interest rate cut in
nearly five years on Friday, which would be the latest move from
major central banks around the world that points to a renewed
desire to loosen policy and lower borrowing costs.
The obvious exceptions are the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has
paused its easing cycle, and the Bank of Japan, which is
gradually raising rates, albeit from virtually zero.
But the Reserve Bank of India's decision comes amid growing
concern worldwide over the potential damage to economic activity
and growth from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats.
The Bank of England and Bank of Mexico cut interest rates on
Thursday, and there was an element of dovish surprise to both -
the BoE's decision to lower rates by 25 basis points was
expected but two policymakers voted to cut 50 bps, while Banxico
said its 50 bps cut could be repeated at future meetings.
U.S. Treasury yields, meanwhile, have fallen below 4.50% as
worries about U.S. growth bubble up again, and a soft employment
report on Friday will bring 4.00% closer into view than 5.00%.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of
India to cut its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in
Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy review, as it
attempts to shore up flagging growth.
India isn't in Trump's immediate line of protectionist fire
but policymakers won't be complacent. India's trade surplus with
the US has doubled in five years to the current $45 billion, and
the rupee's persistent weakness ties the RBI's hands in the
event of further tariff-led appreciation of the dollar.
The rupee is one of the worst-performing emerging currencies
against the dollar this year, trading at an all-time low below
87.00 per dollar. A rate cut is widely expected so it should be
in the rupee's price, leaving all eyes on the new governor's
guidance.
Asia's economic calendar on Friday includes foreign exchange
reserves from several countries including China, inflation data
from Taiwan and, perhaps more importantly in the current
climate, January trade figures from Taiwan also.
Taiwan's trade deficit with the US last year widened to $74
billion, meaning it has virtually quadrupled in six years.
Taiwan said this week it will support companies that plan to
relocate to the United States, including helping them find
partners. Taiwan is home to chipmaker TSMC, which has a $65
billion investment in the US to build factories in Arizona.
Wall Street's main indices essentially treaded water on
Thursday, offering little direction to Asia on Friday. But
Amazon shares fell as much as 5% in after-hours trade as
investors gave the company's Q4 earnings an initial thumbs down.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets on Friday:
- India rate decision
- Taiwan trade (January)
- China FX reserves