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MORNING BID ASIA-India eyes historic rate cut, global easing momentum mounts
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MORNING BID ASIA-India eyes historic rate cut, global easing momentum mounts
Feb 6, 2025 2:08 PM

Feb 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Investors are anticipating India's first interest rate cut in

nearly five years on Friday, which would be the latest move from

major central banks around the world that points to a renewed

desire to loosen policy and lower borrowing costs.

The obvious exceptions are the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has

paused its easing cycle, and the Bank of Japan, which is

gradually raising rates, albeit from virtually zero.

But the Reserve Bank of India's decision comes amid growing

concern worldwide over the potential damage to economic activity

and growth from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats.

The Bank of England and Bank of Mexico cut interest rates on

Thursday, and there was an element of dovish surprise to both -

the BoE's decision to lower rates by 25 basis points was

expected but two policymakers voted to cut 50 bps, while Banxico

said its 50 bps cut could be repeated at future meetings.

U.S. Treasury yields, meanwhile, have fallen below 4.50% as

worries about U.S. growth bubble up again, and a soft employment

report on Friday will bring 4.00% closer into view than 5.00%.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of

India to cut its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in

Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy review, as it

attempts to shore up flagging growth.

India isn't in Trump's immediate line of protectionist fire

but policymakers won't be complacent. India's trade surplus with

the US has doubled in five years to the current $45 billion, and

the rupee's persistent weakness ties the RBI's hands in the

event of further tariff-led appreciation of the dollar.

The rupee is one of the worst-performing emerging currencies

against the dollar this year, trading at an all-time low below

87.00 per dollar. A rate cut is widely expected so it should be

in the rupee's price, leaving all eyes on the new governor's

guidance.

Asia's economic calendar on Friday includes foreign exchange

reserves from several countries including China, inflation data

from Taiwan and, perhaps more importantly in the current

climate, January trade figures from Taiwan also.

Taiwan's trade deficit with the US last year widened to $74

billion, meaning it has virtually quadrupled in six years.

Taiwan said this week it will support companies that plan to

relocate to the United States, including helping them find

partners. Taiwan is home to chipmaker TSMC, which has a $65

billion investment in the US to build factories in Arizona.

Wall Street's main indices essentially treaded water on

Thursday, offering little direction to Asia on Friday. But

Amazon shares fell as much as 5% in after-hours trade as

investors gave the company's Q4 earnings an initial thumbs down.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Friday:

- India rate decision

- Taiwan trade (January)

- China FX reserves

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