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MORNING BID ASIA-India rate call in focus, political crises cool
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MORNING BID ASIA-India rate call in focus, political crises cool
Dec 5, 2024 2:18 PM

Dec 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

India's central bank interest rate decision grabs the

spotlight in Asia on Friday, as investors digest yet another

record high for the Nasdaq and adjust positions ahead of the

weekend.

The U.S. employment report for November later in the day is

released after Asia closes, so investors across the continent

may be inclined to square positions as best they can in

preparation for Monday.

The main event in Asia on Friday is in India. The Reserve

Bank of India is overwhelmingly expected to hold its key repo

rate at 6.50%, after a sharp rise in inflation past the RBI's 6%

tolerance ceiling in October prompted many economists to push

back their forecasts for the first cut to early next year.

With the rupee at record lows against the dollar, standing

pat makes sense. But economists at Nomura, one of the five out

of 67 houses in the Reuters poll predicting a rate cut, argue

that weakening growth dynamics must be taken into account now.

Although the rupee has never been weaker, benchmark bond

yields are at their lowest in almost four years, Indian stocks

are lagging many of their regional peers, and the economy is

growing at its slowest pace in nearly two years. Maybe the RBI

should start the easing cycle sooner rather than later?

Investors go into the final trading session of the week

against a relatively calm global backdrop, all things

considered. Any market impact from the political ructions in

South Korea and France appears to be fading and contained, and

the dollar's dip on Thursday will be welcomed too.

The dollar fell 0.5% on Thursday. It's probably too early to

read anything too deeply into it, but that was its third down

day in a row, a losing streak not seen since September. It will

take more than that - perhaps a return to the September lows,

around 5% below current levels - to really call into question

the dollar's resilience, but could fatigue be setting in?

Fatigue is something the U.S. economy doesn't seem to be

showing any signs of yet. The Atlanta Fed on Thursday raised its

GDPNow model estimate for Q4 growth to a remarkable 3.3%. As

investors fret about growth in Europe, China and many other key

economies around the world, America appears to be the exception

that continues to prove the rule.

This is a double-edged sword for Asia. On the one hand it's

clearly good news as booming U.S. markets should lift all

others. But if it lifts the dollar and Treasury yields, then

global financial conditions tighten and capital is sucked

towards the US.

Indeed, net selling of Asian equities by foreigners in

November was the highest since June 2022.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Friday:

- India rate decision

- Japan household spending (October)

- South Korea current account (October)

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