June 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
An interest rate decision in India and Chinese trade figures are
the main events for investors in Asia on Friday, rounding off a
tumultuous week globally that saw an explosion of political
volatility in the emerging world, heightened worries over U.S.
growth and world stocks hitting new highs.
Asian markets go into Friday mostly on the front foot - the
MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is up nearly 3% this week, the Hang
Seng tech index is up almost 5% and, despite the political
fireworks, Indian stocks are in the green.
Capital is flowing into emerging markets.
Japanese and Chinese stocks are struggling more, however.
Expectations of tighter monetary policy and a stronger yen are
capping the Nikkei, while economic gloom continues to weigh
heavily on Chinese equities.
The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to keep its key
interest rate on hold at 6.50% on Friday, before cutting just
once later in the year, probably in the fourth quarter,
according to a Reuters poll.
With near-8% growth and above-trend inflation, there is
little urgency for the RBI to begin cutting rates yet. Nor is
there much incentive to move before the Fed, especially with the
rupee languishing around record lows.
But with the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank lowering
rates this week, following the Swiss National Bank, the global
'higher for longer' mantra may be losing its oomph.
U.S. rates traders are now fully pricing in 50 basis points
of easing from the Fed this year - one quarter-point cut likely
coming in September, before the Presidential election, and two
by the Dec. 17 to 18 policy meeting.
The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has now fallen six days in a
row. That's the longest uninterrupted decline going back to late
last year, according to Tradeweb data, or back to March 2020,
according to Reuters/Refinitiv indicative pricing.
The one G7 central bank going the other way is the Bank of
Japan. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank should reduce
its huge bond purchases as it moves toward an exit from massive
monetary stimulus, reinforcing his resolve to steadily scale
back its nearly $5-trillion balance sheet.
The remarks keep alive expectations the central bank could
embark on a full-fledged tapering of its bond buying as early as
its policy meeting next week.
But having driven yields higher this year, Japanese
Government Bond bears have gone into retreat as global yields
have fallen - the two-year and 10-year JGB yields have slipped
every day this week.
China's trade data, meanwhile, will be closely watched for
signs that activity is picking up after months of disappointing
numbers. Exports are seen rebounding strongly, rising 6.0%
year-on-year, but import growth is expected to halve to 4.2%.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Friday:
- India interest rate decision
- China trade (May)
- Japan household spending (April)