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MORNING BID ASIA-Inflation scares and yen bears
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MORNING BID ASIA-Inflation scares and yen bears
Jun 26, 2024 3:08 PM

June 27 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Inflation scares in Canada and Australia this week are a

reminder that the global monetary easing cycle expected to

broaden out and accelerate in the second half of the year is by

no means certain.

This is a potential headache for investors in Asian and

emerging markets as the mid-point of the year approaches, and

could weigh on their investments for the next six months.

Figures on Wednesday showed that Australian inflation in May

rose much faster than expected, back up to 4% and enough to flip

the interest rate outlook - traders now reckon a rate hike this

year is more likely than a cut.

The Aussie dollar's rally quickly evaporated, however, much

like the Canadian dollar's rally following surprisingly strong

Canadian inflation numbers earlier this week.

Both succumbed to the U.S. dollar, which hit a two-month

high against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday. Will the

inflation pulse in Canada and Australia show up in U.S. data

too, and prevent the Fed from cutting rates?

This is the worry for Asia and emerging markets - a strong

U.S. dollar tightens global financial conditions and steers

capital towards U.S. assets at the expense of emerging markets.

So does rising Treasury yields, and on Wednesday U.S. bond

yields broke out of their recent slumber and spiked higher. Wall

Street closed modestly higher, but the dollar and yields may

have more influence on Asian trading on Thursday.

Thursday's Asia & Pacific economic calendar sees the release

of Japanese retail sales, industrial profit numbers from China,

an interest rate decision from the Philippines, and a speech

from Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Andrew Hauser.

The Philippine central bank is widely expected to keep its

key policy rate on hold at 6.50% for a sixth consecutive

meeting, according to a Reuters poll, and deliver the first cut

in the last three months of the year.

The Philippine peso is at its lowest level of the year

against the U.S. dollar, down 6% year-to-date.

That's only half of the 12% decline registered so far this

year by the Japanese yen, which hit a 38-year low against the

dollar on Wednesday.

It is now well below the 160.00 per dollar level that

triggered large-scale yen-buying intervention from Japanese

authorities nearly two months ago.

Not this time, at least not yet.

Unsurprisingly, short-dated dollar/yen implied volatility

has spiked higher, but the magnitude of increase and levels

reached hardly suggest traders are fearful of heavy-handed

intervention.

Overnight implied vol on Wednesday rose the most since

mid-May but only back to where it was on Tuesday. One-week

implied vol rose the most in four weeks, but again, only back to

where it was in mid-June.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Thursday:

- Philippines rate decision

- Japan retail sales (May)

- China industrial profits (May)

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