June 27 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Inflation scares in Canada and Australia this week are a
reminder that the global monetary easing cycle expected to
broaden out and accelerate in the second half of the year is by
no means certain.
This is a potential headache for investors in Asian and
emerging markets as the mid-point of the year approaches, and
could weigh on their investments for the next six months.
Figures on Wednesday showed that Australian inflation in May
rose much faster than expected, back up to 4% and enough to flip
the interest rate outlook - traders now reckon a rate hike this
year is more likely than a cut.
The Aussie dollar's rally quickly evaporated, however, much
like the Canadian dollar's rally following surprisingly strong
Canadian inflation numbers earlier this week.
Both succumbed to the U.S. dollar, which hit a two-month
high against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday. Will the
inflation pulse in Canada and Australia show up in U.S. data
too, and prevent the Fed from cutting rates?
This is the worry for Asia and emerging markets - a strong
U.S. dollar tightens global financial conditions and steers
capital towards U.S. assets at the expense of emerging markets.
So does rising Treasury yields, and on Wednesday U.S. bond
yields broke out of their recent slumber and spiked higher. Wall
Street closed modestly higher, but the dollar and yields may
have more influence on Asian trading on Thursday.
Thursday's Asia & Pacific economic calendar sees the release
of Japanese retail sales, industrial profit numbers from China,
an interest rate decision from the Philippines, and a speech
from Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Andrew Hauser.
The Philippine central bank is widely expected to keep its
key policy rate on hold at 6.50% for a sixth consecutive
meeting, according to a Reuters poll, and deliver the first cut
in the last three months of the year.
The Philippine peso is at its lowest level of the year
against the U.S. dollar, down 6% year-to-date.
That's only half of the 12% decline registered so far this
year by the Japanese yen, which hit a 38-year low against the
dollar on Wednesday.
It is now well below the 160.00 per dollar level that
triggered large-scale yen-buying intervention from Japanese
authorities nearly two months ago.
Not this time, at least not yet.
Unsurprisingly, short-dated dollar/yen implied volatility
has spiked higher, but the magnitude of increase and levels
reached hardly suggest traders are fearful of heavy-handed
intervention.
Overnight implied vol on Wednesday rose the most since
mid-May but only back to where it was on Tuesday. One-week
implied vol rose the most in four weeks, but again, only back to
where it was in mid-June.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Thursday:
- Philippines rate decision
- Japan retail sales (May)
- China industrial profits (May)