NEW YORK, Oct 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in
Asian markets.
Wall Street got back on track Tuesday, encouraged that the
Fed seems confident enough in the U.S. growth picture to ease up
on the easing, but investors have been reticent ahead of the
release of minutes from the September FOMC where officials took
the most dovish possible policy turn to ensure the US jobs
machine keeps humming.
By the time New York opened, markets weren't looking too
impressed with China's economic jawboning after its return from
Golden Week holiday. The yuan took a spill although
it had brushed itself off a bit by the time Tuesday trading
wrapped up.
Beijing said it was "fully confident" of achieving its
full-year growth target but refrained from introducing stronger
fiscal steps, disappointing investors who had banked on more
support from policymakers to get the economy back on track.
While China shares initially rallied to two-year highs after
the holiday they lost steam after the state planner did not
provide details to sustain market optimism. Hong Kong shares
slumped as investors also walked back some of the stimulus
excitement.
London-based hedge fund giant Winton has lost more than 8%
on its China strategy, since Sept. 20, wiping out all gains for
this year, according to two investors and a performance record.
On Wednesday, the record from September's Fed meeting will
reveal the discussion about what looked at the time like a
deteriorating labor market, until the eye-popping September
payrolls report on Friday put those concerns to rest and
unchained animal spirits for two of three subsequent U.S.
trading sessions.
Traders were 88% confident that November's FOMC would bring
a 25-basis point cut, hedged by a 12% probability that the Fed
would hold rates steady. Fed funds futures still lean toward 50
bps of easing through year end.
U.S. markets were also still focused on the growing risk of
a Middle East conflagration as Israel continued to step up its
military incursion into Lebanon to combat Hezbollah, while
continuing its war with Hamas in Gaza.
That did not stop the S&P 500 from rebounding 1%,
while the Nasdaq advanced almost 1.5% as the risk-off
impulse dissipated.
Forex trading in U.S. time zones was subdued, with traders
keeping powder dry for the release of September CPI on Thursday,
the most important indicator of the week, even as Fed confidence
that inflation is nearing their 2% target seems to have turned
its policy discussion more squarely on employment.
The dollar eked out a 0.05% gain vs. the yen and showed a
0.67% rise against the yuan late Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury
yield held above 4% for a second day.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Wednesday:
- Taiwan CPI (Sept)
- Reserve Bank of India meeting
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting
- Minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Sept)