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MORNING BID ASIA-Investors read Fed tea leaves, shrug off China stimulus
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MORNING BID ASIA-Investors read Fed tea leaves, shrug off China stimulus
Oct 10, 2024 9:43 PM

NEW YORK, Oct 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in

Asian markets.

Wall Street got back on track Tuesday, encouraged that the

Fed seems confident enough in the U.S. growth picture to ease up

on the easing, but investors have been reticent ahead of the

release of minutes from the September FOMC where officials took

the most dovish possible policy turn to ensure the US jobs

machine keeps humming.

By the time New York opened, markets weren't looking too

impressed with China's economic jawboning after its return from

Golden Week holiday. The yuan took a spill although

it had brushed itself off a bit by the time Tuesday trading

wrapped up.

Beijing said it was "fully confident" of achieving its

full-year growth target but refrained from introducing stronger

fiscal steps, disappointing investors who had banked on more

support from policymakers to get the economy back on track.

While China shares initially rallied to two-year highs after

the holiday they lost steam after the state planner did not

provide details to sustain market optimism. Hong Kong shares

slumped as investors also walked back some of the stimulus

excitement.

London-based hedge fund giant Winton has lost more than 8%

on its China strategy, since Sept. 20, wiping out all gains for

this year, according to two investors and a performance record.

On Wednesday, the record from September's Fed meeting will

reveal the discussion about what looked at the time like a

deteriorating labor market, until the eye-popping September

payrolls report on Friday put those concerns to rest and

unchained animal spirits for two of three subsequent U.S.

trading sessions.

Traders were 88% confident that November's FOMC would bring

a 25-basis point cut, hedged by a 12% probability that the Fed

would hold rates steady. Fed funds futures still lean toward 50

bps of easing through year end.

U.S. markets were also still focused on the growing risk of

a Middle East conflagration as Israel continued to step up its

military incursion into Lebanon to combat Hezbollah, while

continuing its war with Hamas in Gaza.

That did not stop the S&P 500 from rebounding 1%,

while the Nasdaq advanced almost 1.5% as the risk-off

impulse dissipated.

Forex trading in U.S. time zones was subdued, with traders

keeping powder dry for the release of September CPI on Thursday,

the most important indicator of the week, even as Fed confidence

that inflation is nearing their 2% target seems to have turned

its policy discussion more squarely on employment.

The dollar eked out a 0.05% gain vs. the yen and showed a

0.67% rise against the yuan late Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury

yield held above 4% for a second day.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Wednesday:

- Taiwan CPI (Sept)

- Reserve Bank of India meeting

- Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting

- Minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Sept)

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