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MORNING BID ASIA-Japan election shockwaves kick off critical week
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MORNING BID ASIA-Japan election shockwaves kick off critical week
Nov 3, 2024 12:10 PM

Oct 28 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

A hugely pivotal week for world markets begins with investors in

Asia already bracing for volatile trading in Japanese assets on

Monday after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lost his

parliamentary majority in the country's general election.

Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party has ruled Japan for almost

all of its post-war history, so the initial market reaction to a

political earthquake of this magnitude could trigger a selloff

in the yen and Japanese stocks, and higher Japanese Government

Bond prices.

More broadly, the shockwaves could undermine the political

stability and continuity many analysts say the Bank of Japan

needs to conduct monetary policy. The BOJ sets interest rates on

Wednesday.

The BOJ's decision is one of several key events this week

that could go a long way to shaping market and investment trends

for the rest of the year. Five of the 'Magnificent Seven'

megacap U.S. tech giants release company earnings this week, and

U.S. nonfarm payrolls for October will be released on Friday.

Staying in Asia, purchasing managers index data this week

will give the earliest insight into how economic activity across

the continent held up in October, most notably in China. Is it

too early for Beijing's recent stimulus to have had any effect?

Probably. And the market impact is understandably beginning

to fade too. Chinese stocks inched up 0.8% last week,

consolidating after a few rollercoaster weeks.

Meanwhile, figures on Sunday showed industrial profits in

China plunged 27.1% in September from a year earlier, the

steepest fall this year.

Asian stocks more broadly softened last week, with the MSCI

Asia ex-Japan index down nearly 2%, the third weekly decline in

a row. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 2.7% for its

second consecutive weekly loss as investors reduced risk

exposure ahead of Sunday's general election.

Contrast that with the Nasdaq, which got a huge boost from

Tesla's remarkable rally after its third-quarter earnings. The

tech-heavy index rose for a seventh week in a row, and over the

past year it has risen in all but 15 of the last 52 weeks.

The S&P 500 dipped slightly, although it is still hugging

the previous week's all-time high, while the Dow Jones shed more

than 2%.

The emerging markets team at Barclays ( JJCTF ) summed up the general

mood pretty well: "The dollar is likely to remain on the front

foot, and U.S. rates are likely to remain elevated, creating a

somewhat painful backdrop for EM assets," they wrote on Friday.

But with so much event risk looming, not least the U.S.

Presidential election on Nov. 5, there may be a limit to how

high Treasury yields can go this week.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- Fallout from Japanese election

- Hong Kong trade (October)

- Thailand trade (October)

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