May 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Japanese consumer confidence and Australian inflation are
the main points of focus for markets in Asia on Wednesday, as
investors ponder the broader implications of a widespread rise
in bond yields.
U.S. Treasury yields, the benchmark for global borrowing costs,
rose to four-week highs on Tuesday in the wake of a weak U.S.
debt auction, leading to a mixed performance on Wall Street.
The Dow fell, the S&P 500 was flat and Nvidia's extraordinary
rally powered the Nasdaq to a fresh record high - shares in the
AI poster child have soared 20% in the last three trading days
and the firm is now worth $2.8 trillion.
But Asian markets on Wednesday may be more sensitive to the
tightening of financial conditions from U.S. yields than the
U.S. tech boom. Some analysts reckon the 10-year Treasury yield
may now be entering a higher range of 4.50% to 4.70%, and the
two-year yield is knocking on the door of 5.00% again.
Closer to home, Japanese Government Bond yields are also
under renewed scrutiny. Yields are making new multi-year highs
across the curve, prompting a flurry of comments from Japanese
and global officials in recent days.
The 10-year JGB yield rose for an eighth straight day on
Tuesday to hit a fresh 12-year high of 1.035%, and the 2-year
JGB yield inched up to a new 15-year peak of 0.36%.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Saturday said the bank's
'basic stance' is that long-term bond yields should be set by
markets. But this is difficult for the BOJ, which has for years
been hoovering up JGBs in its battle against deflation and now
owns more than 50% of the entire market.
Higher bond yields raises the BOJ's interest bill. A lot.
On the other hand, higher JGB yields could support the yen,
which officials would probably welcome - Japan's finance
minister on Tuesday said he was more concerned about the down
side of a weak exchange rate right now, namely the increased
burden on companies and consumers from higher import prices.
Do JGB yields take a breather here? BOJ data on Tuesday sent out
mixed signals on inflation - corporate services prices are
rising at their fastest pace since 2015, but other data show key
measurements of underlying inflation falling below the bank's 2%
target for the first time since August 2022.
If 'higher for longer' JGB yields boost the yen, Japan Inc.
could feel the squeeze. The weak currency has attracted huge
foreign investor flows into Japan, but with further 'material'
weakness no longer likely, HSBC strategists are closing their
overweight position in Japanese equities.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Wednesday:
- Australia inflation (April)
- Japan consumer confidence (May)
- IMF's Gita Gopinath briefs media following IMF's annual
assessment of the Chinese economy