April 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asian markets will hope to end a bruising week on a positive
note on Friday, but fraying global sentiment and a reluctance to
take on much risk ahead of the weekend amid persistent Middle
East tensions could limit any upside.
Headlines from the great and the good of global finance gathered
in Washington continue to keep traders on edge, especially
regarding exchange rates and central banks' policy path relative
to an increasingly hawkish Fed.
The world's biggest exercise in democracy gets underway on
Friday too, as the first of seven phases opens in India's
general election, with 166 million voters across 21 states and
territories casting their vote.
Asia's economic calendar, meanwhile, sees the release of first
quarter GDP from Malaysia and Japanese inflation for March. The
latter could determine whether the dollar, currently around
154.50 yen, makes another push to break above 155.00.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday the central
bank may raise interest rates again if the yen's declines
significantly push up domestic inflation.
The IMF on Thursday urged Asian central banks to focus on
domestic inflation and avoid tying their policy decisions too
closely to anticipated moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
On Wednesday, the United States, Japan and South Korea issued a
joint statement to "consult closely" on the yen and won's recent
weakness against the dollar.
The greenback is firm, rallying 3% in the last few weeks to
its highest since November.
U.S. bond yields are ticking higher again and will post
their third weekly rise in a row, with the 2-year Treasury yield
back up at 5%. The two- and 10-year yields are up 40-45 basis
points in the last few weeks.
That's a tightening of financial conditions that emerging
markets are struggling to handle. Asian stocks are eyeing their
biggest weekly fall since January, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan
index down 2.3% this week and off 5% from its high last week.
Japan's Nikkei, which hit an all-time high above 41,000 points
in late March, is off 7% since then and on Thursday hit a
two-month low. A flat close or fall on Friday will seal its
worst week since December 2022.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500, meanwhile, have fallen five days in
a row, their worst runs since October and December 2022,
respectively.
Figures on Thursday, meanwhile, could help soothe fears that
the yuan's weakness will accelerate capital flight out of the
country - foreign investors increased their holdings of China's
onshore yuan bonds in March for a seventh straight month.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Friday:
- Japan CPI inflation (March)
- Malaysia GDP (Q1)
- India general election opens