(There will be no Asia Morning Bid on Friday July 5)
By Jamie McGeever
July 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
World and U.S. stocks at record highs, a UK general election and
Japanese asset prices stretched to historical levels - there's a
lot for investors in Asia to chew over on Thursday even though
liquidity will be thinned out by the July 4 U.S. holiday.
Indeed, markets in Asia may be more vulnerable to higher
volatility and outsized moves precisely because trading volumes
will be much lighter than usual.
The global backdrop to the Asian open on Thursday, however,
looks positive after stocks rose broadly on Wednesday, the
dollar weakened and Treasury yields fell - a classic collective
market-friendly loosening of financial conditions.
The minutes of the Fed's June 11 to 12 policy meeting released
on Wednesday echoed remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell this
week that price pressures are cooling. Good news.
More ominously, however, the "vast majority of participants"
think U.S. economic activity is cooling too, and this was backed
up by disappointing service sector data and another downward
revision to the Atlanta Fed's GDP growth tracker.
Treasury yields tumbled for a second day - wiping out the
Donald Trump and French election-fueled spike on Monday - paving
the way for another leap to another high for the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq.
Currency traders will be extra vigilant for sharp moves in
the yen and intervention from Japan to prevent its depreciation
from snow-balling, especially with U.S. markets closed.
The yen hit a fresh 38-year low around 162.00 per dollar on
Wednesday. As yet, Tokyo has not showed its hand, and perhaps it
won't - the yen's decline seems reasonably orderly, and yen
volatility across the curve is relatively subdued.
But it's worth remembering that Tokyo's last two yen-buying
forays into the market on April 29 and May 1 were carried out in
illiquid points in the global trading day or holiday-thinned
trading. Traders will be on their guard.
Not only is the yen selling off consistently, so too are
Japanese bonds. The 10-year JGB yield on Wednesday hit 1.10% and
the spread over the two-year JGB yield widened to 75 basis
points.
That's the yen at a 38-year low, the 10-year bond yield
around its highest in 13 years, and the yield curve rapidly
steepening. Plus, the Nikkei is within a whisker of breaking
March's record high.
These are big levels and big moves for Japanese assets. The
potential for some sort of pullback must surely be rising.
Thursday's economic calendar is light, with only Hong Kong
PMI and Australian trade on tap. Friday's calendar is a lot
busier, with inflation from Taiwan, Thailand and the
Philippines, current account data from South Korea, retail sales
figures from Singapore and household spending numbers from Japan
all scheduled for release.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Thursday:
- Hong Kong PMI (June)
- Australia trade (May)
- Thai central bank chief Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput speaks