May 15 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asian markets should open in upbeat mood on Wednesday as lower
U.S. bond yields and a weaker dollar reflect expectations that
the Fed will cut interest rates as early as September, but the
apparent serenity could be shattered in a flash.
The most obvious flash point is April's U.S. inflation
report after Asia closes on Wednesday - punchier-than-expected
figures will force investors to rethink their Fed outlook,
lifting the dollar and yields, and weighing on risk appetite.
Tuesday's U.S. producer price inflation report was, to quote
Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself, "mixed" - price growth in April
was hotter than expected, but prior data were revised down.
Investors maintained a 'glass half full' stance though -
equities rose, the dollar, yields and volatility drifted lower,
and appetite for risky assets picked up.
There's nothing immediately obvious on the Asian economic
calendar that might rock the boat on Wednesday - Australian wage
growth data, Thai consumer confidence and Indonesian trade
figures are the main indicators on tap.
The corporate calendar may generate a bit more trading
activity in individual stocks, especially in Japan, where
financial giants Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho and Sumitomo are all due
to report full-year 2024 earnings.
Markets in China, meanwhile, may not react all that
positively to the new tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese imports
confirmed by the Biden administration on Tuesday.
China's commerce ministry said the move will "seriously
affect the atmosphere of bilateral cooperation" and Italian
Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said the G7 will discuss
the risk of fragmenting global trade next week.
China will almost certainly respond in kind, it just remains
to be seen how forcefully.
"Given the high stakes involved, this round of tariffs could
ratchet up the trade tensions between the two countries in a way
that is difficult to pull back from," said Eswar Prasad, trade
policy professor at Cornell University and former IMF China
department head.
Chinese stocks have plateaued this week after mixed
earnings, at best, from Alibaba and Tencent, and selling
pressure on the yuan is increasing again - dollar/yuan's daily
fixing rate has risen five days out of the last six.
The dollar is also gaining ground on the Japanese yen, even
though 10-year Japanese bond yields are marching to their
highest level since November while U.S. yields slip. The yen's
fragility is bound to put traders on high intervention alert.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Wednesday:
- Australia wage growth (Q1)
- Indonesia trade (April)
- Japanese financials earnings