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MORNING BID ASIA-Markets buoyant, but wary of CPI, tariffs
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MORNING BID ASIA-Markets buoyant, but wary of CPI, tariffs
May 14, 2024 3:24 PM

May 15 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian markets should open in upbeat mood on Wednesday as lower

U.S. bond yields and a weaker dollar reflect expectations that

the Fed will cut interest rates as early as September, but the

apparent serenity could be shattered in a flash.

The most obvious flash point is April's U.S. inflation

report after Asia closes on Wednesday - punchier-than-expected

figures will force investors to rethink their Fed outlook,

lifting the dollar and yields, and weighing on risk appetite.

Tuesday's U.S. producer price inflation report was, to quote

Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself, "mixed" - price growth in April

was hotter than expected, but prior data were revised down.

Investors maintained a 'glass half full' stance though -

equities rose, the dollar, yields and volatility drifted lower,

and appetite for risky assets picked up.

There's nothing immediately obvious on the Asian economic

calendar that might rock the boat on Wednesday - Australian wage

growth data, Thai consumer confidence and Indonesian trade

figures are the main indicators on tap.

The corporate calendar may generate a bit more trading

activity in individual stocks, especially in Japan, where

financial giants Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho and Sumitomo are all due

to report full-year 2024 earnings.

Markets in China, meanwhile, may not react all that

positively to the new tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese imports

confirmed by the Biden administration on Tuesday.

China's commerce ministry said the move will "seriously

affect the atmosphere of bilateral cooperation" and Italian

Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said the G7 will discuss

the risk of fragmenting global trade next week.

China will almost certainly respond in kind, it just remains

to be seen how forcefully.

"Given the high stakes involved, this round of tariffs could

ratchet up the trade tensions between the two countries in a way

that is difficult to pull back from," said Eswar Prasad, trade

policy professor at Cornell University and former IMF China

department head.

Chinese stocks have plateaued this week after mixed

earnings, at best, from Alibaba and Tencent, and selling

pressure on the yuan is increasing again - dollar/yuan's daily

fixing rate has risen five days out of the last six.

The dollar is also gaining ground on the Japanese yen, even

though 10-year Japanese bond yields are marching to their

highest level since November while U.S. yields slip. The yen's

fragility is bound to put traders on high intervention alert.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Wednesday:

- Australia wage growth (Q1)

- Indonesia trade (April)

- Japanese financials earnings

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