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MORNING BID ASIA-Markets eye consolidation, not capitulation
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MORNING BID ASIA-Markets eye consolidation, not capitulation
Apr 7, 2024 3:16 PM

April 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian markets on Monday aim to kick off a week jam-packed with

top-tier local economic indicators and policy decisions in

optimistic mood, after another set of forecast-busting U.S. job

growth figures sparked a sharp rise on Wall Street on Friday.

The highlights on Monday's Asian calendar are trade and

current account figures from Japan, industrial production from

Malaysia, and an interest rate decision in the Philippines.

Japan's Nikkei 225 will be looking to bounce back from

Friday's 2% slide, which sealed a weekly loss of 3.4%, its

biggest decline since December 2022. As ever, the exchange rate

and threat of yen-supportive intervention from Tokyo will hold

great sway over Japanese stocks.

The rebound in risk appetite in U.S. trading on Friday was

noteworthy as it came despite a spike in bond yields, a 4%

weekly rise in oil prices to just under $92 a barrel, and a

further erosion of U.S. rate cut expectations.

Geopolitical tensions continue to bubble away too, pushing

gold to a record high of $2,330 an ounce on Friday.

Will Wall Street's feel good factor extend into Asia on

Monday, or will markets feel the squeeze? The signs point to

equities in a period of consolidation at the highs rather than a

profit-taking run for the hills.

The S&P 500 and MSCI World indexes registered their biggest

weekly losses in three months in the face of rising bond yields,

but they were less than 0.8%. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index,

which is sensitive to higher U.S. yields, was even more

resilient, basically ending the week flat.

Much of that resilience is down to improving economic

numbers from China, and Beijing releases a batch of key

indicators this week including lending, trade and inflation.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has just completed a

four-day visit to China. Yellen said that she and Chinese Vice

Premier He Lifeng agreed to launch exchanges on "balanced"

economic growth, an effort to address U.S. concerns about

China's excess manufacturing capacity.

She also told Premier Li Qiang that bilateral relations were

now more stable because the two sides can have "tough"

discussions.

The Philippine central bank, meanwhile, is widely expected

to keep its key policy rate on hold at 6.50% for a fourth

meeting on Monday. Inflation picked up for the first time in

five months in February, rising to 3.4%, and the central bank

cautioned risks to the outlook remained toward the upside.

That suggests the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may be

less inclined to reduce its rate ahead of major peers, notably

the Fed. Seven out of 19 economists in a Reuters poll predict a

25 basis points cut to 6.25% either in May or June.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- Philippines central bank policy meeting

- Japan trade, current account (February)

- Malaysia industrial production (February)

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