April 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asian markets on Monday aim to kick off a week jam-packed with
top-tier local economic indicators and policy decisions in
optimistic mood, after another set of forecast-busting U.S. job
growth figures sparked a sharp rise on Wall Street on Friday.
The highlights on Monday's Asian calendar are trade and
current account figures from Japan, industrial production from
Malaysia, and an interest rate decision in the Philippines.
Japan's Nikkei 225 will be looking to bounce back from
Friday's 2% slide, which sealed a weekly loss of 3.4%, its
biggest decline since December 2022. As ever, the exchange rate
and threat of yen-supportive intervention from Tokyo will hold
great sway over Japanese stocks.
The rebound in risk appetite in U.S. trading on Friday was
noteworthy as it came despite a spike in bond yields, a 4%
weekly rise in oil prices to just under $92 a barrel, and a
further erosion of U.S. rate cut expectations.
Geopolitical tensions continue to bubble away too, pushing
gold to a record high of $2,330 an ounce on Friday.
Will Wall Street's feel good factor extend into Asia on
Monday, or will markets feel the squeeze? The signs point to
equities in a period of consolidation at the highs rather than a
profit-taking run for the hills.
The S&P 500 and MSCI World indexes registered their biggest
weekly losses in three months in the face of rising bond yields,
but they were less than 0.8%. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index,
which is sensitive to higher U.S. yields, was even more
resilient, basically ending the week flat.
Much of that resilience is down to improving economic
numbers from China, and Beijing releases a batch of key
indicators this week including lending, trade and inflation.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has just completed a
four-day visit to China. Yellen said that she and Chinese Vice
Premier He Lifeng agreed to launch exchanges on "balanced"
economic growth, an effort to address U.S. concerns about
China's excess manufacturing capacity.
She also told Premier Li Qiang that bilateral relations were
now more stable because the two sides can have "tough"
discussions.
The Philippine central bank, meanwhile, is widely expected
to keep its key policy rate on hold at 6.50% for a fourth
meeting on Monday. Inflation picked up for the first time in
five months in February, rising to 3.4%, and the central bank
cautioned risks to the outlook remained toward the upside.
That suggests the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may be
less inclined to reduce its rate ahead of major peers, notably
the Fed. Seven out of 19 economists in a Reuters poll predict a
25 basis points cut to 6.25% either in May or June.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Monday:
- Philippines central bank policy meeting
- Japan trade, current account (February)
- Malaysia industrial production (February)