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MORNING BID ASIA-Markets shake off volatility, but will it last?
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MORNING BID ASIA-Markets shake off volatility, but will it last?
Aug 13, 2024 3:05 PM

Aug 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Markets have bounced back nicely from the recent volatility, and

it's becoming clearer each day that the recent turbulence was

likely due to the unwinding of large leveraged positions, like

yen-funded carry trades, rather than deeper concerns about

global growth.

Now, everyone's eyeing Wednesday's U.S. inflation report, which

could test the market's new calm.

The July CPI numbers might not show much improvement from the

previous month, but as long as there isn't a big surprise,

investors might still hope for the Fed to start easing in

September.

Futures markets currently show a 54% chance of a 50 basis

point cut by the Fed, with a 46% chance of a 25 basis point cut,

and traders are pricing in a full percentage point of easing by

year-end.

Keeping these expectations intact might be key to not scaring

away investors' risk appetite just as Japanese shares have

rebounded after last week's violent selloff. Japan's Nikkei

rose more than 3% following a holiday on Monday.

Ahead of the CPI report, the mood on Wall Street was upbeat,

with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both continuing to rebound

from recent dips. U.S. Treasury yields slipped as data revealed

that U.S. producer prices rose less than expected in July, which

supports the case for the Fed to cut rates in the coming months.

Meanwhile, Brent and U.S. crude oil futures dipped on

Tuesday as the market perceived a reduced risk of a broader

conflict in the Middle East.

Investors will also keeping an eye on New Zealand's central

bank, which might cut interest rates on Wednesday, a full year

ahead of its previous guidance. Slowing inflation, rising

unemployment, and sluggish economic growth have led investors to

bet on this easing move.

India's wholesale price data will also be in the spotlight, as

investors are eager to see if inflation slowed in July after

climbing in recent months. Notably, India's retail inflation

dropped in July to its lowest level in nearly five years,

according to government data released on Monday.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Wednesday:

- Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting

- India Wholesale Price Index (July)

- U.S. Consumer Price Index (July)

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