Aug 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Falling bond yields and the prospect of lower interest rates may
have helped fuel investors' animal spirits and the recent mega
rally in world stocks, but it's a different story when borrowing
costs are falling because recession fears are rising.
That's the market landscape investors in Asia wake up to on
Friday after disappointing U.S. factory data on Thursday slammed
U.S. Treasury yields, Wall Street, and stocks, prompting traders
to start betting on a possible 50 basis point rate cut from the
Fed next month rather than 25 bps.
Figures showing a much larger-than-expected contraction in U.S.
manufacturing activity last month followed purchasing managers
index data earlier on Thursday that painted a similar picture in
Germany, Japan and China.
China's 'unofficial' Caixin manufacturing PMI was
particularly galling at 49.8, signaling a contraction, compared
with a consensus forecast of 51.5 and fairly steady growth.
With China's economy already in the doldrums, renewed weakness
in Europe and the U.S. is bad news for global growth. Central
bank rate cuts, the latest of which came from the Bank of
England on Thursday, may have to be deeper and faster than
analysts and policymakers had bargained for.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tumbled 13 basis points, its
biggest one-day fall this year, and is now below 4.0%. Never
mind the great rotation out of Mega Tech into small caps,
investors seem to be rotating out of stocks and into the safety
of U.S. Treasuries.
Apple ( AAPL ), Amazon ( AMZN ) and Intel ( INTC ) reported earnings after the U.S.
close on Thursday and the early signs are investors were not
impressed. Intel's ( INTC ) outlook, in particular, was bleak, and shares
fell 15% in after-hours trading.
Investors in Asia will be hoping for a calmer end to a momentous
week, the highlight of which was a rate hike in Japan.
As Washington-based economist Phil Suttle puts it: "Judged
by the actions of other central banks, these were hardly major
moves. Judged by Japanese policy over the past 25 years,
these were major moves."
So far this year the Bank of Japan has raised rates twice, ended
yield curve control and started QT, Suttle noted.
Asia's economic calendar on Friday is light, with only South
Korean inflation likely to be a market-mover. A Reuters poll
suggests the annual rate ticked up to 2.50% in July from a
one-year low of 2.40% in June.
Swaps market pricing points to 35 basis points of easing
from the Bank of Korea this year. Barclays economists on
Thursday forecast quarter-point rate cuts in October and
November.
Asia's corporate calendar on Friday is busier, with earnings
reports due from Japan including Nintendo ( NTDOF ) and Sumitomo Mitsui
Financial Group ( SMFG ).
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Friday:
- South Korea inflation (July)
- Australia producer price inflation (Q2)
- U.S. non-farm payrolls (July)