March 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
A batch of top-tier Chinese economic data releases gets Asian
markets underway on Monday, with sentiment pretty fragile after
last week's global market wobble and as investors brace for U.S.
and Japanese policy decisions later in the week.
Asian equity markets are on the defensive. The MSCI Asia
ex-Japan index's 1.4% slump on Friday - its steepest since
January - sealed its biggest weekly loss in two months, while
Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 2.5% for its biggest weekly loss this
year.
The sharp rebound in U.S. bond yields is taking its toll on
risk appetite, and was probably the main catalyst for the
selloff in global stocks last week.
The ICE BofA U.S. Treasuries index fell every day last week,
its worst run since August resulting in the biggest weekly fall
since October. The two-year yield rose 24 basis points, almost
the equivalent of a quarter-point rate hike.
The Asia and Pacific calendar this week is packed with
hugely important economic data releases and central bank policy
meetings, none more so than the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting
that starts on Monday.
Expectations are high that the BOJ will raise interest rates
for the first time since 2007, bringing the curtain down on
eight years of 'negative interest rate policy', or NIRP.
Japan's biggest companies agreed to raise wages by 5.28% for
2024, the heftiest pay hikes in 33 years, the country's largest
union group said on Friday, reinforcing views that policymakers
will make their historic move on Tuesday.
Sources have also told Reuters that the BOJ will offer
guidance on how much government bonds it will buy upon ending
NIRP and yield curve control (YCC), to avoid causing market
disruptions.
Policy decisions from the central banks of China, Australia,
Indonesia and Taiwan are also on tap this week, as are inflation
figures from Japan and New Zealand's fourth-quarter GDP report.
The week kicks off on Monday, though, with four key
indicators from China - business investment, retail sales,
industrial production and unemployment.
Some green shoots of recovery in China are gradually
becoming visible. There are signs that capital is no longer
flooding out the country, stocks have recovered, and some
economic data is improving - China's economic surprises index is
the highest since October.
But the road to recovery will be long and rocky. Figures
last week showed that house prices fell at their fastest annual
rate in over a year, and new bank lending growth fell to the
lowest on record.
Figures on Monday are expected to show that business
investment growth in February ticked up to 3.2%, industrial
output growth slowed to 5.0% and retail sales also slowed to
5.2% from the month before. These are all year-on-year measures.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Monday:
- China 'data dump' (February)
- Japan machinery orders (January)
- Malaysia trade (February)