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MORNING BID ASIA-Nerves stretched, China data dump kicks off key week
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MORNING BID ASIA-Nerves stretched, China data dump kicks off key week
Mar 17, 2024 3:16 PM

March 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

A batch of top-tier Chinese economic data releases gets Asian

markets underway on Monday, with sentiment pretty fragile after

last week's global market wobble and as investors brace for U.S.

and Japanese policy decisions later in the week.

Asian equity markets are on the defensive. The MSCI Asia

ex-Japan index's 1.4% slump on Friday - its steepest since

January - sealed its biggest weekly loss in two months, while

Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 2.5% for its biggest weekly loss this

year.

The sharp rebound in U.S. bond yields is taking its toll on

risk appetite, and was probably the main catalyst for the

selloff in global stocks last week.

The ICE BofA U.S. Treasuries index fell every day last week,

its worst run since August resulting in the biggest weekly fall

since October. The two-year yield rose 24 basis points, almost

the equivalent of a quarter-point rate hike.

The Asia and Pacific calendar this week is packed with

hugely important economic data releases and central bank policy

meetings, none more so than the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting

that starts on Monday.

Expectations are high that the BOJ will raise interest rates

for the first time since 2007, bringing the curtain down on

eight years of 'negative interest rate policy', or NIRP.

Japan's biggest companies agreed to raise wages by 5.28% for

2024, the heftiest pay hikes in 33 years, the country's largest

union group said on Friday, reinforcing views that policymakers

will make their historic move on Tuesday.

Sources have also told Reuters that the BOJ will offer

guidance on how much government bonds it will buy upon ending

NIRP and yield curve control (YCC), to avoid causing market

disruptions.

Policy decisions from the central banks of China, Australia,

Indonesia and Taiwan are also on tap this week, as are inflation

figures from Japan and New Zealand's fourth-quarter GDP report.

The week kicks off on Monday, though, with four key

indicators from China - business investment, retail sales,

industrial production and unemployment.

Some green shoots of recovery in China are gradually

becoming visible. There are signs that capital is no longer

flooding out the country, stocks have recovered, and some

economic data is improving - China's economic surprises index is

the highest since October.

But the road to recovery will be long and rocky. Figures

last week showed that house prices fell at their fastest annual

rate in over a year, and new bank lending growth fell to the

lowest on record.

Figures on Monday are expected to show that business

investment growth in February ticked up to 3.2%, industrial

output growth slowed to 5.0% and retail sales also slowed to

5.2% from the month before. These are all year-on-year measures.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- China 'data dump' (February)

- Japan machinery orders (January)

- Malaysia trade (February)

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