Sept 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Investors in Asia close out a choppy week hoping for calm on
Friday but wary that U.S. growth fears are bubbling just under
the surface and that the U.S. economic and policy landscape next
week could be extremely challenging again.
U.S. employment data on Friday, after Asia's close, will set
the tone for world markets up until the Fed announces its
interest rate decision and revised economic projections on Sept.
18.
Investors are on edge.
The MSCI World index and S&P 500 are on course for their
biggest weekly losses since April, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan and
Nikkei 225 are on course for their steepest losses in six weeks,
and Shanghai stocks on Thursday plumbed a fresh seven-month low.
Japan's Nikkei is down 5% this week, and could fall further
if the yen continues to appreciate. The dollar dipped below
143.00 yen on Thursday for the first time since Aug. 5 and
momentum appears to be to the downside.
With a stronger currency in their pocket, Japanese investors
are hoovering up assets overseas. Figures on Thursday showed
that they were net buyers of foreign bonds for a fifth week, and
net buyers of foreign stocks for a third week.
The Fed's policy decision later this month could be the
catalyst for dollar/yen to test 140.00. San Francisco Fed
President Mary Daly told Reuters on Wednesday that interest
rates need to come down, although she didn't say how quickly.
Japanese rates, meanwhile, should continue to rise but at a
pace that ensures volatile markets do not harm businesses, Bank
of Japan board member Hajime Takata said on Thursday.
On the face of it, Fed rate cuts and more BOJ tightening is
a recipe for further yen strength. But a lot is already priced
into the U.S. curve - over 100 basis points of easing this year
and some 225 bps by the end of next year.
Japanese household spending data for July will be released
on Friday, following figures on Thursday that showed real wages
rose in July for a second month. Until June, inflation-adjusted
wages had fallen every month for more than two years.
Strong wage and spending growth will keep the BOJ more
inclined to raise rates again, in turn fueling further yen
upside.
Many other Asian currencies have been on an impressive
upswing in recent weeks too, clawing back most of their losses
for the year or even moving into positive territory
year-to-date.
The Asian calendar is light on Friday, with South Korean
current account figures for August among the few highlights.
Seven countries, including Japan, will release their latest FX
reserves holdings, which at the last count totaled around $3
trillion.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets on Friday:
- South Korea current account (August)
- Japan household spending (July)
- Japan FX reserves (August)