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MORNING BID ASIA-New Zealand, Indonesia set rates; Nvidia vigil almost over
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MORNING BID ASIA-New Zealand, Indonesia set rates; Nvidia vigil almost over
May 21, 2024 3:15 PM

May 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Monetary policy decisions from New Zealand and Indonesia are the

main points of focus in Asia on Wednesday, as debate over the

timing of the first U.S. rate cut ebbs and flows, and lofty

equity markets consider their next step.

Asian stocks retreated on Tuesday, snapping a seven-day winning

streak despite the relative calm in currency and bond markets.

But Wall Street crept higher, with the Nasdaq reaching a new

peak ahead of Nvidia's ( NVDA ) first-quarter earnings report.

The message on interest rates from a raft of Federal Reserve

officials on Tuesday was patience. Indeed, it may be several

months before policymakers are confident inflation is really

falling back to target, allowing them to start cutting rates.

With many stock markets around the world at record or

multi-year highs, a period of cooling may be inevitable. The

MSCI Asia ex-Japan index on Tuesday slipped 0.9% - its biggest

fall in over a month - while Japan's Nikkei lost 0.3%, and Hong

Kong's Hang Seng shed more than 2%.

After Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson rowed back on his

long-standing gloomy outlook for Wall Street on Monday, another

prominent bear, JP Morgan's Marko Kolanovic, reiterated his view

that U.S. stocks are too expensive and should head south.

He is much more upbeat on Asia, favoring Japanese and

Chinese equities over U.S. markets. Japan is attractive because

of inflation and monetary policy normalization, while measures

to support the housing market, underweight investor positioning

and cheap valuations are reasons to buy China.

While the world maintains its vigil ahead of AI darling

Nvidia's ( NVDA ) results on Wednesday, investors in Asia digest two

monetary policy decisions and other potentially exchange

rate-moving data, including Japanese trade and South Korean

producer price inflation.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank Indonesia are both

expected to leave their key interest rates on hold, at 5.50% and

6.25%, respectively, according to Reuters polls.

The RBNZ is only expected to cut its cash rate once this

year, and probably not until the final quarter. Money markets

are a bit more dovish, and are currently pricing in 45 basis

points of easing by year-end.

After stunning markets last month with an unexpected rate hike

to support the rupiah, Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to keep

its seven-day reverse repurchase rate at 6.25% and hold it there

for several months, or until the Fed cuts U.S. rates.

In a rare media briefing earlier this month, BI Governor

Perry Warjiyo said current data shows there is no need to raise

rates again, and the central bank is trying to strengthen the

rupiah beyond 16,000 per dollar.

The rupiah closed trading on Tuesday at 15,990 per dollar.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Wednesday:

- New Zealand monetary policy decision

- Indonesia monetary policy decision

- Japan trade (April)

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