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MORNING BID ASIA-Optimism rising high, soft landing on track
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MORNING BID ASIA-Optimism rising high, soft landing on track
Jul 7, 2024 3:04 PM

July 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Investors start the new week in ebullient mood after last

Friday's U.S. jobs figures kept the "soft landing" story on

track, lowering the dollar and bond yields, and adding fuel to

the relentless "risk on" rally in stocks.

Most of the world's main equity markets are at record or

multi-year peaks, and there doesn't seem to be much on the

immediate horizon to derail them.

Profit-taking, quarter-end position adjustments, worries

over valuations or market concentration, and political or policy

jitters have all come into play recently. But the overpowering

"buy the dip" mentality has ensured any pull backs have been

shallow and brief.

European politics may have some influence on early Asian

trading on Monday - France was on course for a hung parliament

in Sunday's election, with a leftist alliance unexpectedly

taking top spot ahead of the far right in a major upset that was

set to bar the far right, eurosceptic National Rally party from

running the government.

Asia opens in good shape. Japan's Nikkei 225 index scraped a

new record high of 41,100 points on Friday and has risen some 7%

in just two weeks, and the MSCI Emerging Market and MSCI Asia

ex-Japan indices are at their highest in two years.

More broadly, the MSCI World, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all hit

record highs last week, and last month euro zone stocks hit a

23-year high. Britain's FTSE 100 hit a record high in May.

Monday's Asia and Pacific calendar is light, with the

spotlight on bank lending, trade and current account, and

overtime pay figures from Japan. Philippines central bank

governor Eli Remolona and finance secretary Ralph Recto speak at

a business forum on Monday too.

Japan's overtime pay isn't usually seen as a top-tier

indicator, but it is worth watching this month.

A recent labor union survey showed that firms offered to

hike pay by 5.1% on average this year, the biggest increase in

33 years and far outpacing inflation now hovering around 2%. But

figures on Friday showed that household spending plunged in May

as higher prices continued to squeeze consumers' purchasing

power.

This is a headache for Bank of Japan policymakers who want

to raise interest rates and have put great store on rising

wages, but are worried about the impact on an economy that's far

from firing on all cylinders.

Looking ahead, the most market-sensitive events in Asia this

week are likely to be central bank policy meetings in New

Zealand, South Korea and Malaysia, and producer and consumer

price inflation figures from China.

The main market drivers globally are likely to be U.S. CPI

inflation on Thursday, and two days of Congressional testimony

by Fed Chair Jerome Powell set for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- Japan wage growth (May)

- Japan current account (May)

- France general election

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