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MORNING BID ASIA-Playing the waiting game, Japan stirs
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MORNING BID ASIA-Playing the waiting game, Japan stirs
Jun 10, 2024 3:05 PM

June 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian markets look set to remain on the defensive on Tuesday,

kept in check by rising bond yields, political shockwaves in

Europe, a buoyant dollar and caution ahead of the U.S. Federal

Reserve's policy decision later in the week.

That's not necessarily a blanket outlook across the

continent though - Japanese equities got the week off to a solid

start, shrugging off a spike up Japanese Government Bond yields

after revisions to first quarter GDP were stronger than expected

and the yen fell broadly.

The economic calendar on Tuesday is light, with only South

Korean current account figures, Philippines trade numbers and

Australian business confidence on tap.

Japan's GDP revisions on Monday will have boosted sentiment

towards Japan and raised expectations that the Bank of Japan

will press ahead with policy normalization at its policy meeting

later this week.

The 10-year JGB yield jumped 4.5 basis points on Monday, its

biggest rise in two months and enough to reverse half of last

week's decline.

The BOJ is widely expected to hold off following up on its

historic 10-basis point rate hike in March - its first since

2007 - for at least a few months more.

Japanese swap markets aren't fully pricing in another 10 bps

of tightening until the BOJ's September meeting, and are

currently pointing towards a total 25 bps of rate hikes between

now and the end of the year.

Instead, the BOJ is more likely this week to discuss cuts in

its JGB purchases as part of efforts to unwind monetary stimulus

and reduce its $5 trillion balance sheet.

But the yen will need more from the BOJ if it is to avoid

falling back into the 158-160 per dollar zone that prompted two

bouts of intervention from Tokyo recently. The yen on Monday

slipped back below 157.00 per dollar.

The currency's near-term fate, however, is probably in the

dollar's hands, and the greenback is on quite a ride right now.

Last week, it was languishing at a two-month low against a

basket of major currencies, but rebounded following Friday's

U.S. jobs report, and on Monday touched a one-month high.

Record closing highs on Wall Street and buoyant Treasury

yields should continue to underpin the dollar, and that's a

combination that will probably weigh on emerging market assets

more broadly.

If sentiment towards Japan is brightening, investors remain

cool towards Chinese assets.

The CSI 300 index of blue chip shares and Shanghai Composite

index both slumped on Friday to a six-week low. Chinese markets

were closed on Monday so there could be outsized moves at the

open on Tuesday as investors play catch-up for two global

trading sessions.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Tuesday:

- South Korea current account (April)

- Philippines trade (April)

- Australia business confidence (May)

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