June 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asian markets look set to remain on the defensive on Tuesday,
kept in check by rising bond yields, political shockwaves in
Europe, a buoyant dollar and caution ahead of the U.S. Federal
Reserve's policy decision later in the week.
That's not necessarily a blanket outlook across the
continent though - Japanese equities got the week off to a solid
start, shrugging off a spike up Japanese Government Bond yields
after revisions to first quarter GDP were stronger than expected
and the yen fell broadly.
The economic calendar on Tuesday is light, with only South
Korean current account figures, Philippines trade numbers and
Australian business confidence on tap.
Japan's GDP revisions on Monday will have boosted sentiment
towards Japan and raised expectations that the Bank of Japan
will press ahead with policy normalization at its policy meeting
later this week.
The 10-year JGB yield jumped 4.5 basis points on Monday, its
biggest rise in two months and enough to reverse half of last
week's decline.
The BOJ is widely expected to hold off following up on its
historic 10-basis point rate hike in March - its first since
2007 - for at least a few months more.
Japanese swap markets aren't fully pricing in another 10 bps
of tightening until the BOJ's September meeting, and are
currently pointing towards a total 25 bps of rate hikes between
now and the end of the year.
Instead, the BOJ is more likely this week to discuss cuts in
its JGB purchases as part of efforts to unwind monetary stimulus
and reduce its $5 trillion balance sheet.
But the yen will need more from the BOJ if it is to avoid
falling back into the 158-160 per dollar zone that prompted two
bouts of intervention from Tokyo recently. The yen on Monday
slipped back below 157.00 per dollar.
The currency's near-term fate, however, is probably in the
dollar's hands, and the greenback is on quite a ride right now.
Last week, it was languishing at a two-month low against a
basket of major currencies, but rebounded following Friday's
U.S. jobs report, and on Monday touched a one-month high.
Record closing highs on Wall Street and buoyant Treasury
yields should continue to underpin the dollar, and that's a
combination that will probably weigh on emerging market assets
more broadly.
If sentiment towards Japan is brightening, investors remain
cool towards Chinese assets.
The CSI 300 index of blue chip shares and Shanghai Composite
index both slumped on Friday to a six-week low. Chinese markets
were closed on Monday so there could be outsized moves at the
open on Tuesday as investors play catch-up for two global
trading sessions.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Tuesday:
- South Korea current account (April)
- Philippines trade (April)
- Australia business confidence (May)